Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Nassr to win this match against Al-Faisaly FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently positioned second in the league, Al-Nassr has enjoyed a strong start to the season with six wins, one draw, and just one loss from eight matches. Their offensive capabilities are evident, having scored 19 goals while conceding only 7, resulting in a goal difference of +12, which demonstrates their efficiency both in attack and defense. On the other hand, Al-Faisaly FC finds itself struggling at 15th place, having yet to secure a win this season. Their record of three draws and four losses highlights their difficulties, as they have only managed to score 5 goals while conceding 13. With a goal difference of -8, they will need to significantly improve their performance to turn their season around. The model gives Al-Nassr a high win probability, reflecting their strong form and position in the standings. However, a potential caveat is that Al-Faisaly could benefit from home advantage, which sometimes leads to unexpected results. For a detailed explanation of the prediction method, which involves assessing expected goals and actual results across the season, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Al-Nassr have been the stronger side, winning 75% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Al-Nassr win as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Al-Nassr are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 10.25 | 6.25 | 1.16 | 1.33 | 2.81 | 1.77 | 1.89 | |
| 10.50 | 7.00 | 1.18 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 8.99 | 7.02 | 1.24 | 1.39 | 2.91 | — | — | |
| 9.50 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 9.50 | 5.25 | 1.22 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 11.90 | 7.29 | 1.18 | 1.35 | 2.84 | 1.77 | 1.92 | |
Betano | 10.50 | 6.20 | 1.26 | 1.44 | 2.90 | 1.83 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 10.00 | 5.75 | 1.20 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Al-Nassr leads 5-3)In the last 10 encounters between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr, Al-Nassr has won 5 matches, Al-Faisaly FC has won 3, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Al-Nassr achieving a couple of dominant victories, including a 4-0 win in January 2022. While there have been some tight contests, such as the 4-3 match in May 2021, the overall record shows a slight edge for Al-Nassr. Al-Faisaly FC's last win against Al-Nassr was in April 2021, suggesting a challenge in recent matchups.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 24 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 22 | WWDWL |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 20 | WLWWW |
| 5 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 18 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  NEOM | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 16 | LLDWW |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 7 | DWLDD |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Abha | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Faisaly FC have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Al-Faisaly FC 3-2 and lost to Al-Faisaly FC 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 5L from the last 20 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Al-Nassr have won 12 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al Ain 4-0 and drew with Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 27W 2D 7L from the last 36 games (75% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Faisaly FC
No reported absences
Al-Nassr
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Faisaly FC have averaged 2.4 corners per match at home; Al-Nassr 8.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Nassr have generated 1.79 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 75% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Nassr player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
