Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Ittihad FC to win against Al Diriyah, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Al-Ittihad currently sits in fourth place in the league standings, having played seven matches and remaining unbeaten with five wins and two draws. They have scored 12 goals while conceding only six, resulting in a goal difference of +6. Their recent form has been strong, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, showcasing both resilience and attacking capability. In contrast, Al Diriyah is positioned ninth with a record of three wins, two draws, and three losses from eight matches, accumulating 11 points. They have struggled defensively, conceding eight goals while only managing to score seven, leading to a negative goal difference of -1. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating a team that is still finding its footing this season. The model gives Al-Ittihad a win probability of 62%, reflecting their superior form and league position. However, a potential caveat is that if Al Diriyah manages to exploit any defensive lapses from Al-Ittihad, they could pose a significant challenge. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
Al-Ittihad FC have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Al-Ittihad FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.83 | 3.72 | 3.30 | 1.50 | 2.28 | 1.49 | 2.38 | |
| 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.83 | 4.30 | 3.63 | 1.56 | 2.44 | — | — | |
| 1.87 | 3.25 | 3.05 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.91 | 3.89 | 3.45 | 1.55 | 2.36 | 1.49 | 2.42 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.54 | 2.27 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 24 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Al-Nassr | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 22 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 20 | WLWWW |
| 5 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 18 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  NEOM | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 16 | LLDWW |
| 7 | Al Diriyah | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 15 | WDLDW |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Abha | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Ittihad FC have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Al-Ittihad FC 1-2 and beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 10L from the last 37 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Al Diriyah have won 5 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al-Nassr 3-0 and beat Al-Fateh 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 6L from the last 21 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Ittihad FC
No reported absences
Al Diriyah
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Ittihad FC have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Al Diriyah 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Ittihad FC have generated 1.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Ittihad FC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
