Atlas vs Puebla Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atlas vs Puebla
Match Preview
The model favours Atlas to win against Puebla, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Atlas currently sits in 6th place in the Liga MX standings, demonstrating a solid season thus far with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses from 11 matches. Despite a negative goal difference of -1, their ability to score 17 goals this season indicates a more offensive threat compared to their opponents. Puebla, on the other hand, is positioned 9th with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses. They have scored 12 goals and conceded 13, resulting in an equal goal difference of -1. Their form has been inconsistent, with only 1 win in the last 5 matches, which reflects their struggles in finding a rhythm this season. The model output suggests Atlas has a higher win probability for this encounter. However, it is essential to consider that both teams are closely matched in standings and goal difference, meaning a surprise result is possible. The full methodology used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team relies on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Atlas have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Atlas clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Atlas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atlas vs Puebla| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.74 | 3.58 | 4.30 | 1.80 | 1.93 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.33 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 1.76 | 3.77 | 4.56 | 1.85 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 1.72 | 3.26 | 3.85 | 1.84 | 1.98 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.76 | 3.58 | 4.30 | 1.80 | 1.93 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.60 | 1.87 | 1.98 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.33 | 1.78 | 1.89 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atlas leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Atlas and Puebla, Atlas has won 5 times, Puebla has won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in close results, such as a 1-0 and multiple 2-3 outcomes. However, there are also instances of more decisive victories, like Atlas's 4-0 win in March 2023. The frequency of draws suggests that both teams are capable of matching each other, but Atlas has had the upper hand overall, with Puebla last winning in July 2026.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 24 | WDWDL |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 23 | WDDLD |
| 3 |  Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 | DLDLW |
| 4 |  Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 21 | WLDWD |
| 5 | Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 | WDWDL |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 | WDDLW |
| 12 | Puebla | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 16 |  CF Pachuca | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 13 | LDLDW |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 | LLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 32 | -24 | 4 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtlas have won 5 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Atlas 1-1 and drew with Atlas 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 15L from the last 38 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Puebla have won 5 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Puebla 0-0 and lost to Tigres UANL 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 18L from the last 35 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtlas
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Atlas have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; Puebla 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atlas have generated 1.37 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atlas player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
