Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Tips & Odds
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas
Match Preview
The model favours Guadalajara Chivas to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fourth place, Chivas have shown more consistency this season compared to their opponents. With five wins and four draws from their eleven matches, they have accumulated 19 points and possess a strong goal difference of +7. Their defensive record stands out, having conceded only 11 goals, which reflects their ability to manage games effectively. In contrast, Monterrey finds themselves in tenth place with 14 points from ten matches. Their recent form has been mixed, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five games. While they have managed to score 17 goals, their defensive vulnerabilities are evident, having conceded 15 goals and achieving a goal difference of just +2, indicating that they may struggle against a more disciplined Chivas side. The model output suggests that there is a 55% probability of Chivas winning this match, with a projected score of 2-1. However, Monterrey could pose a threat if they capitalize on their home advantage and improve their defensive organization. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, who utilize an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Monterrey have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Monterrey are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.44 | 3.22 | 2.74 | 1.70 | 2.06 | 1.54 | 2.28 | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.56 | 3.14 | 2.94 | 1.72 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 2.27 | 3.16 | 2.54 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.44 | 3.22 | 2.74 | 1.70 | 2.06 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
Betano | 2.52 | 3.20 | 2.82 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas, Guadalajara Chivas has won 5 times, Monterrey has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches featuring narrow wins, such as the 2-3 and 1-2 results. However, there have also been instances of heavier defeats, including a 4-2 victory for Guadalajara Chivas. The draws suggest that neither team consistently dominates the other, and Monterrey has not won against Guadalajara Chivas since April 2024, highlighting a recent trend favoring Chivas in this matchup.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 24 | WDWDL |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 23 | WDDLD |
| 3 |  Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 | DLDLW |
| 4 |  Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 21 | WLDWD |
| 5 |  Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 | WDWDL |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 | WDDLW |
| 8 | Monterrey | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 16 |  CF Pachuca | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 13 | LDLDW |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 | LLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 32 | -24 | 4 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMonterrey have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat CF Pachuca 2-1 and beat Toluca 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 15L from the last 38 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Guadalajara Chivas have won 9 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Atlas 1-1 and drew with Club America 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 12D 8L from the last 40 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonterrey
No reported absences
Guadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Monterrey have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; Guadalajara Chivas 7.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monterrey have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monterrey player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
