Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Tips & Odds
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned in 4th place, Sturm Graz has demonstrated a competitive edge this season with three wins, two draws, and two losses from their seven matches. Their goals against (9) indicate a slightly leaky defence, but they have managed to score 8 goals, showcasing their attacking potential. On the other hand, Austria Vienna finds itself in a challenging 10th position, having secured only 2 wins from their 7 matches. With 7 goals scored but 13 conceded, they face difficulties both offensively and defensively. Their recent form, which includes two wins, one draw, and two losses, suggests inconsistency, which could be a crucial factor in this matchup. The model gives Sturm Graz a 46.2% chance of winning, while Austria Vienna's win probability stands at 27.9%. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is 56.1%, with both teams scoring projected at 58.6%. However, a potential risk for Sturm Graz could be their recent dip in form, which includes two losses in their last five matches. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Sturm Graz have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sturm Graz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.24 | 3.44 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.04 | 1.59 | 2.18 | |
| 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 3.47 | 3.66 | 2.12 | 1.76 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 2.92 | 3.12 | 2.14 | 1.71 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.24 | 3.44 | 2.12 | 1.73 | 2.04 | 1.59 | 2.21 | |
Betano | 3.35 | 3.30 | 2.12 | 1.72 | 2.07 | 1.57 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.69 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Austria Vienna leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz, Austria Vienna has won 5 times, Sturm Graz has won 2 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including four draws and a mix of narrow victories. Notably, Sturm Graz's last win against Austria Vienna was in February 2024, suggesting a recent challenge in securing victories. The results reflect both teams' ability to score, but there have been instances of lopsided results, such as Sturm Graz's 5-2 win, highlighting that while matches can be tight, significant score differences are also present.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 24 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 21 | WDWDW |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 19 | WLDLW |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 17 | WWLWL |
| 5 |  Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 14 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  WSG Wattens | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 | WLLDW |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 | LLDWL |
| 11 |  SCR Altach | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 | LWLLL |
| 12 |  Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 5 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAustria Vienna have won 7 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Austria Vienna 0-2 and beat Austria Vienna 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 15L from the last 40 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sturm Graz have won 8 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Bournemouth 3-0 and beat Austria Vienna 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 14D 9L from the last 46 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAustria Vienna3-4-2-1Confirmed
Sturm Graz4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAustria Vienna
No reported absences
Sturm Graz
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Walter Altmann has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Austria Vienna have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Sturm Graz 7.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sturm Graz have generated 1.61 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sturm Graz player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
