Sturm Graz vs Ried Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sturm Graz vs Ried
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win this match against Ried, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fourth place in the Bundesliga, Sturm Graz has shown a solid performance this season with four wins, two draws, and two losses from eight matches, accumulating 14 points. Their goal difference of +1 indicates a balanced attack and defence, while their recent form of three wins, one draw, and one loss suggests they are in decent shape heading into this fixture. On the other hand, Ried is closely trailing in fifth place with 11 points from eight games, featuring three wins, two draws, and three losses. Their goal tally stands at 13 scored and 13 conceded, revealing a lack of defensive stability. However, Ried has been consistent recently, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws, which could give them confidence going into this challenging away fixture. The model gives Sturm Graz a win probability of 51.7%, with a 24.5% chance of a draw and 23.9% for Ried to claim victory. One key market indicator suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals scored in the match at 59.7%. A potential caveat for Sturm Graz could be their slight inconsistency in defence, which could allow Ried to exploit weaknesses if they are not at their best. For more details on our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
Sturm Graz have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Sturm Graz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sturm Graz vs Ried| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 3.98 | 4.25 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.51 | 2.35 | |
| 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 1.50 | 2.55 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 4.24 | 4.35 | 1.52 | 2.55 | — | — | |
| 1.69 | 3.67 | 3.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.50 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.72 | 3.98 | 4.22 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.51 | 2.39 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 4.05 | 4.45 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sturm Graz leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Sturm Graz and Ried, Sturm Graz has won 7 times, with 2 draws and Ried claiming just 1 victory. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided rivalry, with Sturm Graz often securing narrow wins, such as 1-0 and 2-1, but also achieving heavier victories like 3-1. The most recent match ended in a 1-0 win for Sturm Graz, while Ried's last win against them came in October 2021. Overall, the head-to-head record shows a clear dominance by Sturm Graz.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 24 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 21 | WDWDW |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 19 | WLDLW |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 17 | WWLWL |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 14 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  WSG Wattens | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 | WLLDW |
| 10 |  Austria Vienna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 | LLDWL |
| 11 |  SCR Altach | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 | LWLLL |
| 12 |  Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 5 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSturm Graz have won 15 of their last 26 matches at home, drawing 9 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Marseille 1-0 and beat Grazer AK 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 14D 9L from the last 46 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Ried have won 3 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat WSG Wattens 1-2 and beat Wallern / Marienkirchen 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 15L from the last 40 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSturm Graz
No reported absences
Ried
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Safak Barmaksiz has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Safak Barmaksiz to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sturm Graz have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Ried 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sturm Graz have generated 1.61 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sturm Graz player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
