Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama
Match Preview
The model favours Bahia to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bahia currently sits in fifth place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a solid season with eight wins, seven draws, and five losses. With 31 points accumulated from 20 matches, they have a positive goal difference of four, scoring 29 goals while conceding 25. Their recent form includes two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they strive for a higher position in the league. On the other hand, Vasco da Gama finds itself in a precarious position at 17th place, just above the relegation zone. With only five wins from 20 matches and a total of 21 points, their season has been challenging. They have scored 23 goals but conceded 31, resulting in a negative goal difference of eight. Their recent form shows only one win in the last five matches, which highlights their struggles as they look to escape the relegation battle. The model indicates Bahia has a strong win probability, reflecting their better standings and form. However, one potential caveat is the unpredictability of football, where even a struggling team like Vasco can pull off an upset. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, which combines expected goals with actual results, please see the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model to provide these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Bahia manage games at home, conceding just 1.32 goals per match. Vasco DA Gama score 1.24 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Bahia have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bahia clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Bahia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.45 | 3.75 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.95 | 3.45 | 3.70 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.04 | 3.58 | 3.77 | 1.95 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 2.01 | 3.32 | 3.46 | 1.91 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.01 | 3.55 | 3.81 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.96 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.86 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 2.07 | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.55 | 3.95 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
Superbet | 2.02 | 3.45 | 3.75 | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.73 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bahia leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama, Bahia has won 5 times, Vasco DA Gama has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories, including four matches decided by a single goal. Notably, Bahia has not lost to Vasco DA Gama in their last four encounters, with their most recent meeting ending in a 1-0 win for Bahia. Overall, while Bahia holds a slight advantage, the matches have generally been closely contested, reflecting the balance between the two teams.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 22 | 48 | DWLWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 42 | WDDWW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 40 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 35 | DDDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | WWLWD |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 33 | DDDDW |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 22 | DDLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 22 | DLWLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBahia have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Vasco DA Gama 0-0 and drew with Corinthians 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 9L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vasco DA Gama have won 3 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Vasco DA Gama 0-0 and beat Fluminense 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 14D 12L from the last 38 games (32% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBahia4-4-2Confirmed
Vasco DA Gama4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersBahia7
Vasco DA Gama2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Pereira has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Pereira to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Bahia have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Vasco DA Gama 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bahia have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bahia player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
