Baltika vs FC Rostov Prediction, Tips & Odds
Baltika vs FC Rostov
Match Preview
The model favours Baltika to win against FC Rostov, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Baltika currently sits in 8th place with 11 points from 9 matches, demonstrating a slightly better form than their opponents. With 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, they have managed to score 14 goals while conceding 12, resulting in a positive goal difference of 2. Their recent form, with one win, two draws, and two losses, reflects some inconsistency but also highlights their ability to secure points. In contrast, FC Rostov is positioned 12th with only 8 points from 9 games. Their season has been challenging, marked by 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses. They have scored just 10 goals while allowing 17, leading to a negative goal difference of 7. Rostov's recent form shows two wins but also three losses, indicating that while they can find victories, they struggle defensively, which could be exploited by Baltika. According to the model, Baltika has a win probability of around 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage suggests some betting interest in Baltika winning. However, a potential caveat is Baltika's inconsistency, which could allow Rostov to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full method, which relies on expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches. FC Rostov average 1.2 goals per game.
Baltika manage games at home, conceding just 0.82 goals per match. FC Rostov score 1.24 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.8% probability.
Baltika have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Baltika win as the most likely scoreline at 17.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Baltika clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Baltika are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Baltika vs FC Rostov| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.13 | 3.18 | 3.88 | 2.44 | 1.56 | 2.04 | 1.69 | |
| 2.09 | 3.17 | 3.90 | 2.41 | 1.57 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 2.90 | 3.28 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.18 | 3.26 | 3.98 | 2.53 | 1.62 | 2.04 | 1.71 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)The head-to-head record between Baltika and FC Rostov stands at 1 win for Baltika, 3 draws, and 1 win for FC Rostov over the last five matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no side dominating the encounters. The scorelines suggest a tendency for tight matches, as evidenced by three draws and a narrow win for each team. The highest score recorded was 2-2, while only one match saw a team win by more than a single goal. Baltika's last victory against FC Rostov came in May 2024, reflecting a competitive and closely contested history.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dynamo | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 22 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  CSKA Moscow | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 22 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Zenit | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 4 |  FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 21 | LDDDW |
| 5 |  Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 20 | DWWLD |
| 6 |  Rubin | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 | LDDDW |
| 8 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 12 | DLDLW |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 14 |  Akron | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 | LWDDD |
| 15 |  Rodina Moskva | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 5 | LDLLL |
| 16 |  Fakel | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBaltika have won 6 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lokomotiv 0-1 and drew with Krylia Sovetov 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 10L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Rostov have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Krasnodar 1-0 and lost to Akhmat 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 16L from the last 37 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBaltika
No reported absences
FC Rostov
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Baltika have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; FC Rostov 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Baltika have generated 1.43 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Baltika player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
