Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel Prediction, Tips & Odds
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel
Match Preview
The model favours Krylia Sovetov to win against Fakel, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Krylia Sovetov currently sits in 9th place with 11 points from 9 matches, showcasing a steady performance with one win and four draws in their last five matches. Their goal difference of -1 indicates a competitive edge, as they have managed to score 13 goals while conceding 14. This consistency, particularly in drawing matches, suggests they are difficult to beat. On the other hand, Fakel is struggling at 16th place, having yet to secure a win this season. With only 3 points from their 9 matches, their form has included one win, two draws, and six losses in their last five outings. Their goal tally stands at just 6, with 13 goals conceded, highlighting significant defensive vulnerabilities that Krylia could exploit. The model provides a win probability favouring Krylia Sovetov, alongside the projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat is that if Krylia's attack fails to convert their chances, they may find themselves held to another draw, which has been a recurring theme for them this season. For a detailed breakdown of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, employing an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Krylia Sovetov manage games at home, conceding just 1.49 goals per match. Fakel score 1.04 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.3% probability.
Krylia Sovetov have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Krylia Sovetov win as the most likely scoreline at 17.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Krylia Sovetov clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Krylia Sovetov are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.06 | 3.40 | 3.82 | 2.25 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 1.76 | |
| 2.11 | 3.48 | 3.92 | 2.33 | 1.71 | 1.95 | 1.78 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Krylia Sovetov leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel, Krylia Sovetov has won 6 times, with 3 matches ending in draws and Fakel winning once. This record indicates a strong performance from Krylia Sovetov, particularly highlighted by their ability to secure heavy wins, such as a 5-1 victory in 2021 and a 3-0 win in 2023. The matches have generally been competitive, with several draws, but Fakel's sole victory came in 2023, suggesting they have struggled historically against Krylia Sovetov. Overall, Krylia Sovetov has established a dominant head-to-head record in this matchup.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dynamo | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 22 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  CSKA Moscow | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 22 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Zenit | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 4 |  FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 21 | LDDDW |
| 5 |  Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 20 | DWWLD |
| 6 |  Rubin | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 | LDDDW |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 | DDWDD |
| 14 |  Akron | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 | LWDDD |
| 15 |  Rodina Moskva | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 5 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Fakel | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKrylia Sovetov have won 8 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Spartak Moscow 1-1 and beat Akron 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 14L from the last 39 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Fakel have won 2 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Spartak Moscow 1-0 and lost to FC Rostov 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 8D 12L from the last 25 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKrylia Sovetov
No reported absences
Fakel
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Krylia Sovetov have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Fakel 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Krylia Sovetov have generated 2.72 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Krylia Sovetov player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
