Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction, Tips & Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win against Qingdao Youth Island, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned third in the league, Beijing Guoan has accumulated 38 points from 26 matches, with a record of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +16 highlights a solid offensive and defensive balance, scoring 49 goals while conceding 33. Recent form shows they are unbeaten in their last five matches, securing two wins and three draws, indicating a resilient run as the season approaches its climax. On the other hand, Qingdao Youth Island sits in fifth place, also with 38 points, but their record of 8 wins, 14 draws, and 4 losses reflects a struggle to convert draws into victories. Their goal tally of 31 scored against 32 conceded leaves them with a goal difference of -1, which could be a concern when facing a higher-scoring opponent. Despite their recent run of form, which includes one win and four draws in the last five matches, they have not managed to secure a win in their last four fixtures, relying heavily on draws to maintain their position. The model gives Beijing Guoan a win probability of approximately 54%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that Qingdao's ability to secure draws might frustrate Guoan's attacking play, leading to a tighter match than anticipated. The full method, based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this in-house model to provide nuanced insights into upcoming fixtures.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Beijing Guoan have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Beijing Guoan win as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Beijing Guoan clean sheets, in line with their 35% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Beijing Guoan are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.38 | 4.90 | 6.35 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | — | — | |
| 1.41 | 5.04 | 6.31 | 1.43 | 2.78 | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 4.27 | 5.32 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.43 | 5.11 | 6.62 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 4.70 | 6.20 | 1.42 | 2.67 | 1.60 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Beijing Guoan leads 4-0)Beijing Guoan has a strong head-to-head record against Qingdao Youth Island, winning 4 matches and drawing 2, with Qingdao Youth Island yet to secure a victory in their last 6 encounters. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Beijing Guoan to dominate, with several matches resulting in significant margins, such as a 4-1 win and a 3-1 win. The draws have been relatively rare and occurred in matches that were otherwise tight, ending 2-2. Qingdao Youth Island's last win against Beijing Guoan dates back to before this sample, highlighting their ongoing struggle in this matchup.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 31 | 20 | 52 | LDWLW |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 41 | WDDDW |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 | WDWDL |
| 4 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 | DDWDD |
| 5 |  Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 38 | LWLDW |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 37 | DWLWW |
| 14 |  Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 | LLLDL |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 | LDDWD |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBeijing Guoan have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Beijing Guoan 3-1 and beat Beijing Guoan 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 11D 8L from the last 40 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Qingdao Youth Island have won 6 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 and drew with Tianjin Teda 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 17D 8L from the last 37 games (32% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBeijing Guoan
No reported absences
Qingdao Youth Island
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Beijing Guoan have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Qingdao Youth Island 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beijing Guoan have generated 2.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beijing Guoan player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
