Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban Prediction, Tips & Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win this match against Shenyang Urban, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Positioned 6th in the league, Beijing Guoan has had a solid season so far with 7 wins from 17 matches, contributing to a goal difference of +6. Their recent form shows they are on an upward trajectory, having secured four victories in their last five matches, which highlights their offensive capability with 29 goals scored this season. On the other hand, Shenyang Urban sits 8th in the standings with 20 points, having won 6 out of their 17 matches. Their season has been a struggle, reflected in their negative goal difference of -5. While they have shown some resilience with three wins in their last five matches, the inconsistency in their overall performance, including nine losses, raises concerns about their ability to compete against stronger opponents like Beijing Guoan. According to the model, Beijing Guoan has a win probability of approximately 55%, while Shenyang Urban's chances stand at around 25%. One key market percentage indicates that there is a 60% likelihood for Beijing Guoan to score at least two goals. However, the caveat is that if Shenyang Urban can exploit any defensive lapses from Beijing Guoan, they could pose a significant challenge. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Beijing Guoan have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Beijing Guoan win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Beijing Guoan clean sheets, in line with their 36% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Beijing Guoan are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.38 | 4.85 | 6.40 | 1.36 | 2.95 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 1.36 | 5.05 | 6.85 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.51 | 2.35 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 1.39 | 5.40 | 7.16 | 1.34 | 3.30 | — | — | |
| 1.31 | 4.33 | 5.51 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.80 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.40 | 5.25 | 7.12 | 1.34 | 3.49 | 1.51 | 2.39 | |
| 1.38 | 4.90 | 6.75 | 1.34 | 2.90 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.40 | 4.70 | 6.60 | 1.39 | 2.80 | 1.55 | 2.30 |
Superbet | 1.39 | 4.90 | 6.10 | 1.40 | 2.72 | 1.61 | 2.17 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Shenyang Urban leads 1-0)In their only past encounter, Shenyang Urban defeated Beijing Guoan with a score of 2-1. This match indicates a competitive fixture, as the scoreline reflects a narrow victory rather than a one-sided affair. Since this is the sole historical meeting, there is no trend in terms of draws or heavy wins. Beijing Guoan has yet to secure a victory against Shenyang Urban, making their upcoming clash particularly significant as they seek to overturn this early deficit.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 43 | DDDWW |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 29 | DDLWL |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 28 | WWLLW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 25 | DLWLD |
| 5 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 25 | DLWWD |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 24 | LWLWL |
| 7 | Beijing Guoan | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 22 | DWWWL |
| 9 | Shenyang Urban | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 21 | DWLWW |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 15 |  Tianjin Teda | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 11 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 11 | WLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBeijing Guoan have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Shenyang Urban 1-1 and beat Shandong Luneng 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 8L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Shenyang Urban have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Shenyang Urban 1-1 and lost to Dalian Kewei 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 11L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBeijing Guoan4-4-2Confirmed
Shenyang Urban3-4-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBeijing Guoan
No reported absences
Shenyang Urban
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Beijing Guoan have averaged 7.8 corners per match at home; Shenyang Urban 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beijing Guoan have generated 2.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 7.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beijing Guoan player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
