Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island
Match Preview
The model favours Shenyang Urban to win against Qingdao Youth Island, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Positioned 8th in the league, Shenyang Urban has recorded 6 wins from 17 matches, accumulating 20 points. Their recent form shows an improvement, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a potential upward trend. The team has scored 24 goals this season but has also conceded 29, highlighting a need for defensive improvements. Qingdao Youth Island sits just above them in 6th place with 24 points from 18 matches, boasting 5 wins, 9 draws, and 4 losses. Their ability to secure points through draws has kept them competitive, but their recent form of two wins and two draws in the last five matches suggests they may be struggling to convert opportunities into victories. With 22 goals scored and 28 conceded, their goal difference mirrors Shenyang's defensive vulnerabilities. The model indicates a win probability of 45% for Shenyang Urban, while Qingdao Youth Island has a 25% chance of winning. The key market percentage to note is the implied likelihood of Shenyang Urban securing the three points at home. However, a potential caveat is Shenyang's inconsistent defensive record, which could allow Qingdao to exploit weaknesses. The full method and analysis can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Shenyang Urban have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Shenyang Urban are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.68 | 3.40 | 1.62 | 2.24 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.57 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.73 | 3.46 | 1.62 | 2.27 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.38 | |
| 2.01 | 3.79 | 3.50 | 1.64 | 2.28 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
Betano | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.35 | 1.62 | 2.22 | 1.53 | 2.35 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Qingdao Youth Island leads 3-1)In the last five matches between Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island, Qingdao Youth Island leads with three wins, while Shenyang Urban has one win and there has been one draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with three matches decided by a single goal, showcasing tight contests. However, Qingdao Youth Island's victories include a 3-1 win, suggesting they have been able to secure heavier wins when they perform well. Shenyang Urban's last win against Qingdao Youth Island dates back to November 2022, indicating a recent trend favoring the latter side.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 43 | DDDWW |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 29 | DDLWL |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 28 | WWLLW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 25 | DLWLD |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 25 | DLWWD |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 24 | LWLWL |
| 9 | Shenyang Urban | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 21 | DWLWW |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 15 |  Tianjin Teda | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 11 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 11 | WLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShenyang Urban have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shenyang Urban 3-1 and lost to Shenyang Urban 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 11L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Qingdao Youth Island have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 and drew with Xi'an Ronghai 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 13D 7L from the last 29 games (31% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShenyang Urban
No reported absences
Qingdao Youth Island
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shenyang Urban have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Qingdao Youth Island 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shenyang Urban have generated 1.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shenyang Urban player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
