Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye
Match Preview
The model favours Shandong Luneng to win against Henan Jianye, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Shandong Luneng currently sits in fourth place in the league standings, having secured 24 points from 18 matches with a record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +3 indicates a relatively balanced attack and defence, scoring 34 goals while conceding 31. Despite some inconsistency in their recent form, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches, they remain a competitive side in the league. On the other hand, Henan Jianye is positioned 13th in the table and trails with 15 points from 17 matches, marked by 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal statistics reflect struggles in attack, having scored only 18 goals while conceding 22, resulting in a negative goal difference of -4. Recent form has been troubling, with only two wins in five matches, which may indicate difficulties in maintaining consistency and competing against stronger teams. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 60% for Shandong Luneng, with the projected score being 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that if Henan Jianye can exploit defensive lapses from Shandong Luneng, they may pose a threat. For a detailed breakdown of how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Shandong Luneng have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Shandong Luneng are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.97 | 3.80 | 3.24 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.40 | 2.68 | |
| 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.25 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.02 | 3.86 | 3.30 | 1.46 | 2.66 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.20 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 2.03 | 3.92 | 3.34 | 1.46 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.73 | |
Betano | 1.98 | 3.80 | 3.25 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Shandong Luneng leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye, Shandong Luneng has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Henan Jianye has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a relatively competitive record, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow and more decisive wins. Notably, Shandong Luneng has secured three victories by a margin of two goals or more, including a recent 5-1 win, while Henan Jianye's wins include a high-scoring 4-1 victory. The last time Henan Jianye won was in June 2024, suggesting a challenging period for them in this fixture.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 43 | DDDWW |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 29 | DDLWL |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 28 | WWLLW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 25 | DLWLD |
| 5 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 25 | DLWWD |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 24 | LWLWL |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 18 | WLLLW |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 15 |  Tianjin Teda | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 11 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 11 | WLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShandong Luneng have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shandong Luneng 4-3 and drew with Shandong Luneng 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 7L from the last 29 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Henan Jianye have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Yunnan Yukun 2-1 and beat Jiangxi Liansheng 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 10L from the last 28 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShandong Luneng
No reported absences
Henan Jianye
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shandong Luneng have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Henan Jianye 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shandong Luneng have generated 1.92 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shandong Luneng player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
