SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction, Tips & Odds
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua
Match Preview
The model favours Shanghai Shenhua to win this match against Shanghai SIPG, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 10th place, Shenhua has demonstrated stronger overall form this season, securing 8 wins from 17 matches, which is significantly better than SIPG's 5 wins. With a goal difference of +9, compared to SIPG's +2, Shenhua's offensive capabilities have been more prolific, scoring 36 goals thus far. On the other hand, Shanghai SIPG finds itself in 12th place after 17 games, accumulating only 15 points. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five matches. While they have managed to score 26 goals, their defence has also been shaky, allowing 24 goals, which leaves them vulnerable against a higher-scoring opponent like Shenhua. According to the model, Shanghai Shenhua has a win probability of approximately 55%, while the projected score is 2-1. One key market to consider is Shenhua’s ability to capitalize on SIPG's defensive weaknesses. However, if SIPG can leverage their home advantage effectively, the outcome could be different. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
SHANGHAI SIPG have been the stronger side, winning 28% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. SHANGHAI SIPG are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.56 | 1.38 | 2.88 | 1.33 | 2.90 | |
| 2.27 | 3.76 | 2.68 | 1.33 | 2.81 | 1.33 | 2.98 | |
| 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.55 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| 2.33 | 3.99 | 2.78 | 1.39 | 3.06 | — | — | |
| 2.16 | 3.46 | 2.51 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 2.35 | 3.90 | 2.62 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.34 | 3.88 | 2.76 | 1.37 | 3.32 | 1.33 | 3.04 | |
| 2.28 | 3.65 | 2.70 | 1.42 | 2.60 | 1.38 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 2.32 | 3.70 | 2.65 | 1.39 | 2.80 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Superbet | 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.67 | 1.39 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 2.92 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.60 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.30 | 3.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Shanghai Shenhua leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Shanghai SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua, Shanghai Shenhua has won 5 times, with Shanghai SIPG claiming victory in 3 matches and 2 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested games, including four matches decided by a single goal. Notably, Shanghai SIPG's largest win came recently with a decisive 5-0 victory, while Shanghai Shenhua's victories have often been narrow. The last time Shanghai SIPG won against Shanghai Shenhua was in July 2023, suggesting that the latter has had the upper hand in more recent encounters.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 45 | LDDDD |
| 2 |  Dalian Zhixing | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 | WDLWW |
| 3 |  Yunnan Yukun | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 31 | WLWDL |
| 4 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 31 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 29 | WWDDW |
| 6 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 29 | LLDDL |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 22 | WLLLW |
| 13 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 19 | LWDLW |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 17 | WWWWL |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 15 | DWWLL |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSHANGHAI SIPG have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-0 and drew with Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 10D 11L from the last 29 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Shanghai Shenhua have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shanghai Shenhua 0-1 and lost to Shenyang Urban 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 12L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSHANGHAI SIPG4-3-3Confirmed
Shanghai Shenhua4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSHANGHAI SIPG
No reported absences
Shanghai Shenhua
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
SHANGHAI SIPG have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Shanghai Shenhua 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
SHANGHAI SIPG have generated 1.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 28% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. SHANGHAI SIPG player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
