Botafogo vs Fluminense Prediction, Tips & Odds
Botafogo vs Fluminense
Match Preview
The model favours Fluminense to win against Botafogo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fluminense currently sits in 4th place in the Serie A standings, having played 19 matches and secured 32 points with a record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +5 reflects a solid defensive performance, allowing only 24 goals this season. With two wins and three draws in their last five matches, they are maintaining a strong form. Botafogo, positioned 7th in the league, has played 20 matches, earning 29 points through 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses. Their goal difference of +2 indicates a less stable defense compared to Fluminense, having conceded 32 goals. While they have shown some improvement with three wins in their last five matches, their inconsistent form could be a concern, particularly against a higher-ranked opponent. The model indicates a win probability of around 48% for Fluminense, with a projected score of 2-1. However, the caveat is that Botafogo's home advantage could play a crucial role, potentially leading to an unexpected outcome. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team applies an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Botafogo manage games at home, conceding just 1.17 goals per match. Fluminense score 1.39 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
Botafogo have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Botafogo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Botafogo vs Fluminense| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.24 | 3.12 | 3.28 | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.29 | 3.28 | 3.43 | 2.02 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 2.38 | 3.09 | 2.58 | 1.98 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.30 | 3.21 | 3.37 | 2.00 | 1.84 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
| 2.23 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 1.97 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 2.02 | |
| 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 2.27 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 2.27 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 1.95 | 1.87 | 1.71 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Botafogo leads 7-3)In the last 10 matches between Botafogo and Fluminense, Botafogo has won 7 times while Fluminense has won 3 times, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a fairly competitive rivalry, but Botafogo has shown a tendency to secure narrow victories, as evidenced by five matches ending with a one-goal margin. Fluminense's victories, however, include a notable 4-2 win, suggesting they can score heavily when they succeed. The last time Fluminense won was in 2026, indicating a recent struggle to overcome Botafogo in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 22 | 48 | DWLWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 42 | WDDWW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 40 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 35 | DDDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | WWLWD |
| 6 |  Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 33 | DDDDW |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 30 | DWDWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 22 | DLWLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBotafogo have won 8 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Fluminense 1-1 and drew with Vitoria 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 10L from the last 35 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fluminense have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Vasco DA Gama 0-0 and drew with Gremio 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 13D 8L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBotafogo4-2-3-1Confirmed
Fluminense4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersBotafogo4
Fluminense5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Botafogo have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Fluminense 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Botafogo have generated 2.01 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 6.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Botafogo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
