Botafogo vs Vitoria Prediction, Tips & Odds
Botafogo vs Vitoria
Match Preview
The model favours Botafogo to win against Vitoria, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Botafogo currently sits in 12th place in the Serie A standings, having earned 22 points from 17 matches, with a balanced goal difference of zero. The team has shown a slight uptrend in form recently, recording three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This resurgence in performance could play a critical role in their confidence as they approach this fixture. On the other hand, Vitoria is just behind in 13th place, also with 22 points, but with a less favourable goal difference of -4. Their recent form has been slightly better than Botafogo's, with four wins in their last five matches. However, the inconsistency in their overall season performance, alongside a lower goals scored tally compared to Botafogo, could hinder their chances against a team that has recently found its footing. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Botafogo, suggesting a competitive match ahead. While the home advantage and recent form favour Botafogo, a potential setback could arise from Vitoria's recent winning streak, which might provide them with the momentum to pull off an upset. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Botafogo have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Botafogo clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Botafogo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Botafogo vs Vitoria| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.71 | 3.55 | 4.75 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.73 | 3.48 | 4.85 | 1.79 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.75 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.78 | 3.65 | 5.03 | 1.83 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 1.76 | 3.42 | 4.07 | 1.89 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 5.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.78 | 3.58 | 4.99 | 1.82 | 2.03 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 1.73 | 3.65 | 4.70 | 1.77 | 2.04 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
Superbet | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.90 | 1.80 | 2.02 | 1.74 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Botafogo leads 5-0)In the last 10 matches between Botafogo and Vitoria, Botafogo has won 5 times, with 5 matches ending in a draw, while Vitoria has yet to secure a win. The scorelines indicate a competitive series, with several tight encounters, notably five matches ending in draws or by a single goal. Vitoria's inability to win in this period is significant, reflecting a challenging matchup for them, particularly as they have not triumphed in their last ten meetings. This head-to-head record suggests a pattern of dominance by Botafogo, albeit with some matches remaining closely contested.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | WWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 36 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 31 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 7 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 29 | WDWLD |
| 11 | Vitoria | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 26 | DWLWL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 20 | DWLWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 | LWLWD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBotafogo have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Botafogo 0-0 and beat Botafogo 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 10L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vitoria have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Vitoria 0-0 and beat Fortaleza EC 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 10L from the last 36 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
17 playersBotafogo8
Vitoria9
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Pinheiro has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Botafogo have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Vitoria 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Botafogo have generated 2.01 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 6.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Botafogo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
