Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Match Preview
The model favours Bournemouth to win against Sunderland, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 17th place, Bournemouth has struggled to find form this season, with no wins in their first five matches (0W, 3D, 2L). However, their recent performance shows some improvement, having secured two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. With a goal difference of -2 and six goals scored, their ability to find the net could be pivotal in this matchup. Sunderland, positioned 14th, has also had a challenging start to the season, with one win from five matches (1W, 1D, 3L). Their recent form reflects a similar trend, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five fixtures. They have conceded ten goals, resulting in a goal difference of -4, which indicates defensive vulnerabilities that Bournemouth could exploit. According to the model output, Bournemouth has a win probability of 54.1%, while the chance of a draw stands at 24.8% and Sunderland winning at 21.1%. The model also suggests a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 52.8%. One caveat to consider is that if Sunderland can tighten their defence and capitalise on set pieces, they could challenge Bournemouth's chances. The full method details can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.4% probability.
Bournemouth have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bournemouth clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Bournemouth are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bournemouth vs Sunderland| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.76 | 3.88 | 4.60 | 1.82 | 2.01 | 1.73 | 1.99 | |
| 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.33 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.40 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.81 | 3.98 | 4.72 | 1.88 | 2.07 | 1.73 | 2.02 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Sunderland stands at 2 wins for Bournemouth, 2 draws, and 2 wins for Sunderland over the last six matches. This record indicates a balanced rivalry, with each team securing victories. The scorelines reveal a mix of close encounters, with four matches ending in a one-goal margin or draws, suggesting competitive fixtures. Notably, the last two meetings resulted in a draw and a narrow win for Sunderland, highlighting a recent trend towards tighter contests. Overall, neither side has established dominance in this matchup, making it evenly contested historically.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 13 | WWWDL |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 5 |  Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 16 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 19 |  Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBournemouth have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Bournemouth 0-1 and drew with Bournemouth 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 15D 4L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sunderland have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Manchester City 5-3 and drew with Brentford 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 4D 14L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBournemouth
No reported absences
Sunderland
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Bournemouth average 2.0 goals per match at home; Sunderland 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Bournemouth have generated 1.37 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bournemouth player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
