Brighton vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Tips & Odds
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
Match Preview
The model favours Brighton to win against Crystal Palace, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Brighton currently sits in third place in the league, having played five matches this season. Their form has been impressive, with three wins, one draw, and one loss, accumulating a total of 10 points. The team has scored 16 goals while conceding only 5, resulting in a strong goal difference of 11. Key stats highlight Brighton's offensive capabilities, making them a formidable opponent. In contrast, Crystal Palace is struggling in 15th place, with only one win in their five matches this season. They have managed to secure just 4 points, scoring 6 goals but conceding 11, which has led to a negative goal difference of 5. Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses, indicating inconsistency and a need for improvement to climb the standings. The model's output suggests a win probability of around 65% for Brighton, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat for Brighton could be complacency, especially against a rival team like Crystal Palace, who will be eager to prove themselves. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results over the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Crystal Palace leads 3-2)Crystal Palace hold the edge in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 10 meetings with 5 draws and 2 Brighton wins. The record points to a tie Crystal Palace have controlled for years, though the draws show Brighton have at times kept it tight.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 13 | WWWDL |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 5 |  Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 | WDLWL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 19 |  Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBrighton have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Brighton 3-0 and drew with Brighton 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 5D 9L from the last 31 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Crystal Palace have won 6 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Leeds 0-0 and beat Fulham 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 15L from the last 41 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBrighton
No reported absences
Crystal Palace
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
