Brondby vs Aarhus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Brondby vs Aarhus
Match Preview
The model favours Brondby to win against Aarhus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fifth place, Brondby has secured five wins from eleven matches this season, with a goal difference of -1. Their recent form shows a mixed performance with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Key to their success has been their ability to score, with 18 goals, although they have also conceded 19, indicating a need for improvement in defensive stability. On the other hand, Aarhus is struggling in tenth place with just one win in their eleven matches, alongside six draws and four losses. With a goal difference of -3, they have scored 15 goals but conceded 18. Their recent form reflects a slight uptick, having recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. However, their overall lack of victories this season poses a significant challenge as they face a mid-table opponent. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Brondby and a 30% chance for Aarhus, with a key market percentage suggesting a 45% likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals. A potential caveat for Brondby could be their inconsistency, as they have shown vulnerability in defence. For a detailed breakdown of how these predictions were formed, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as produced by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which leverages an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Best Betting Odds
Brondby vs Aarhus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | |
| 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.30 | |
Double Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aarhus leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Brondby and Aarhus, Aarhus has won 5 times, while Brondby has secured 3 victories, with 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, highlighted by several close encounters, including a notable 3-3 draw. Only two matches have been decided by a margin greater than one goal, suggesting that most games have been tightly contested. Brondby last won against Aarhus in May 2025, while Aarhus has a stronger recent record, having won three of the last four encounters.
Superliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 25 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 25 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Viborg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 19 | DDLWD |
| 5 | Brondby | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 19 | WLWLL |
| 6 |  AC Horsens | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 13 | DDDLW |
| 10 | Aarhus | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 9 | DWDLD |
| 11 |  Sonderjyske | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 8 | WLWDL |
| 12 |  Lyngby | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 8 | DLLDW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBrondby have won 9 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Brondby 5-2 and drew with Brondby 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 15L from the last 37 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Aarhus have won 7 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with FC Copenhagen 1-1 and lost to Gent 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 15D 11L from the last 44 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBrondby
No reported absences
Aarhus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Brondby have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Aarhus 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Brondby have generated 1.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Brondby player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
