Burnley vs Charlton Prediction, Tips & Odds
Burnley vs Charlton
Match Preview
The model favours Charlton to win against Burnley, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 9th place, Charlton has shown a more competitive edge this season with three wins, three draws, and just two losses from their eight matches. Their goal-scoring record stands at seven goals, while they have conceded ten, resulting in a goal difference of -3. Despite some recent inconsistencies, their overall performance indicates they are capable of securing vital points. In contrast, Burnley remains at the bottom of the table in 24th place, having yet to secure a win this season. With four draws and four losses, they have only managed to collect four points from their eight games. Their goal difference of -8 highlights their struggles, having scored nine goals but conceding 17. Burnley’s recent form, with three draws and two losses in their last five matches, reflects their ongoing difficulties in turning performances into victories. The model output suggests a win probability of 60% for Charlton, while Burnley sits at 20%. A key market percentage indicates that Charlton is favoured to win by a margin of 1.5 goals. However, should Burnley find a way to leverage their home advantage at Turf Moor, they could disrupt Charlton's plans. For a detailed explanation of the methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Burnley have been the stronger side, winning 8% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Burnley win as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Burnley clean sheets, in line with their 8% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Burnley are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Burnley vs Charlton| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.60 | 3.94 | 5.10 | 1.80 | 1.94 | 1.81 | 1.87 | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.62 | 3.99 | 5.30 | 1.86 | 2.00 | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 3.54 | 4.76 | 1.84 | 1.98 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 1.62 | 3.94 | 5.03 | 1.80 | 1.94 | 1.81 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.40 | 1.85 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 1.93 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.25 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Burnley leads 5-1)In the last six encounters between Burnley and Charlton, Burnley has won five times while Charlton has secured one victory, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a dominant trend for Burnley, as they have won four matches by a margin of three goals or more, showcasing their attacking strength. Charlton's lone win came over a decade ago, in November 2012, suggesting they have struggled to find success against Burnley in recent meetings. Overall, the head-to-head record highlights Burnley’s clear advantage in this matchup.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 20 | WWWLD |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 3 |  West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 16 | DDWWW |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 6 |  QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 | DDDDL |
| 11 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 13 | DLDDL |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 7 | WDLDL |
| 23 |  Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 | DDLLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 | LDLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBurnley have won 1 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 9 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Burnley 1-1 and lost to Burnley 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 14D 19L from the last 36 games (8% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Charlton have won 7 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Cardiff 3-1 and lost to Stoke City 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 12L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
14 playersBurnley11
Charlton3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Anthony Backhouse has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Anthony Backhouse to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Burnley have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Charlton 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Burnley have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 8% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Burnley player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
