Wolves vs Bolton Prediction, Tips & Odds
Wolves vs Bolton
Match Preview
The model favours Wolves to win this match against Bolton, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Wolves currently sit in fourth place in the Championship, having accumulated 14 points from their first seven matches. Their attacking prowess is highlighted by 15 goals scored, while they have conceded 10, resulting in a positive goal difference of 5. Despite a mixed recent form with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, their overall season performance indicates a strong competitive edge. In contrast, Bolton finds themselves in 15th position with 10 points from eight matches. Their season has been inconsistent, with three wins and four losses. They have scored 11 goals but have also conceded 15, leading to a negative goal difference of -4. Recently, Bolton has struggled, managing only two wins in their last five matches and suffering three consecutive losses, which raises concerns about their current form. According to the model, Wolves have a win probability of approximately 60%, with the projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage indicates that Wolves are favoured to win by a significant margin. However, a potential caveat is that if Bolton can find their rhythm and convert chances, they could pose a threat. The full methodology used for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Wolves have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Wolves win as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Wolves clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Wolves are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Wolves vs Bolton| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.37 | 4.85 | 7.20 | 1.52 | 2.24 | 1.77 | 1.92 | |
| 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.50 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 1.41 | 4.88 | 7.01 | 1.61 | 2.36 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.17 | 5.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.38 | 4.85 | 7.19 | 1.52 | 2.24 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
Betano | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.40 | 1.62 | 2.37 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.50 | 1.57 | 2.21 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)In the last 10 matches between Wolves and Bolton, both teams have won 3 times, with 4 matches ending in draws. This record indicates a balanced rivalry, as neither side has established dominance. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests and a few more decisive victories, such as Wolves' 4-0 win in April 2018 and a 5-1 victory in November 2017. However, there have also been several closely contested draws and narrow wins. Notably, the last time Bolton secured a win over Wolves was in March 2012, suggesting a shift in recent matchups.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 20 | WWWLD |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 3 |  West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 16 | DDWWW |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 6 |  QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 | DDDDL |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 10 | LWWLL |
| 22 |  Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 7 | WDLDL |
| 23 |  Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 | DDLLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 | LDLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWolves have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Wolves 1-0 and beat Wolves 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 13L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Bolton have won 3 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bolton 3-4 and lost to Millwall 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 7L from the last 19 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
3 playersWolves2
Bolton1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Tim Robinson has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Tim Robinson to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Wolves have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; Bolton 9.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Wolves have generated 2.22 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Wolves player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
