Charlotte vs FC Dallas Prediction, Tips & Odds
Charlotte vs FC Dallas
Match Preview
The model favours Charlotte to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against FC Dallas. Both teams are closely matched in the standings, sitting in fourth place with 43 and 44 points respectively. Charlotte’s season has been strong, with 12 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, showcasing a solid goal difference of +10. Their recent form has been impressive, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches, which includes three wins and two draws. On the other hand, FC Dallas is also performing well this season, with a record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses. They have scored 49 goals, slightly more than Charlotte, but have also conceded 42 goals, contributing to a lower goal difference of +7. Although they have shown resilience, their recent form mirrors that of Charlotte, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge. According to the model, Charlotte has a 49.2% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 24.5% and FC Dallas at 26.2%. The prediction suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored (62.6%) and both teams to score (63.7%). A potential caveat is that if FC Dallas can capitalize on their attacking prowess, they could disrupt Charlotte's momentum. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
Charlotte have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Charlotte are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Charlotte vs FC Dallas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.11 | 3.78 | 2.97 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.80 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 2.18 | 4.11 | 3.01 | 1.46 | 2.83 | — | — | |
| 2.16 | 3.53 | 2.74 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.88 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 2.20 | 3.75 | 3.10 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
Betano | 2.20 | 3.85 | 2.95 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 2.75 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.90 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Charlotte and FC Dallas shows 0 wins for Charlotte, 1 draw, and 0 wins for FC Dallas. Their only encounter ended in a 2-2 draw, indicating a tightly contested match. The scoreline suggests that both teams were able to find the net, but as there have been no wins for either side in this matchup, it reflects a balanced rivalry thus far. It remains to be seen how future fixtures will play out, but currently, neither team has managed to assert dominance over the other.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 47 | DLWLW |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCharlotte have won 13 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Charlotte 3-2 and lost to Charlotte 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 13L from the last 40 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Dallas have won 12 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Charlotte 3-2 and beat Minnesota United FC 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 9D 9L from the last 38 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCharlotte4-2-3-1Confirmed
FC Dallas3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersCharlotte4
FC Dallas1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Drew Fischer has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Charlotte have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; FC Dallas 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Charlotte have generated 1.69 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Charlotte player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
