Charlton vs QPR Prediction, Tips & Odds
Charlton vs QPR
Match Preview
The model favours Charlton to win this match against QPR, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Charlton currently sits in third place in the Championship, boasting a perfect record with two wins from two matches. They have scored four goals and conceded two, showing a solid goal difference of two. Their strong start to the season, combined with home advantage, makes them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, QPR is in fifth place with one win and one draw from their two matches. They have scored three goals while conceding one, also maintaining a goal difference of two. While they remain unbeaten, their recent form shows a mix of results with three wins and two draws in their last five matches. This suggests they have the capability to compete, but they may need to elevate their performance to match Charlton's current momentum. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Charlton, with the projected score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is that if QPR can maintain their defensive solidity and capitalize on counter-attacks, they could disrupt Charlton's plans. The full methodology used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Charlton manage games at home, conceding just 1.32 goals per match. QPR score 1.60 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
QPR have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. QPR are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Charlton vs QPR| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.28 | 3.38 | 2.12 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 1.76 | 1.93 | |
| 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.15 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 3.49 | 3.44 | 2.19 | 2.05 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 2.98 | 3.07 | 2.23 | 2.02 | 1.82 | — | — | |
| 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.15 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.15 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.30 | 3.38 | 2.13 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
| 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.23 | 1.97 | 1.76 | 1.73 | 1.98 | |
| 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.15 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.25 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
Superbet | 3.35 | 3.30 | 2.22 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)Charlton and QPR have been evenly matched in this fixture, with 3 wins each and 3 draws across the last 9 meetings. The record offers no clear edge to either side, and the scorelines have stayed mostly tight rather than one-sided.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 3 | QPR | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 4 |  Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 5 |  West Brom | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 | Charlton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 | LDWWW |
| 22 |  Cardiff | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 23 |  Preston | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 24 |  Burnley | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCharlton have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Charlton 1-0 and beat Charlton 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 11L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
QPR have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Blackburn 1-2 and beat Portsmouth 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 11L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersCharlton9
QPR2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Charlton have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; QPR 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
QPR have generated 1.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. QPR player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
