Derby vs West Brom Prediction, Tips & Odds
Derby vs West Brom
Match Preview
The model favours West Brom to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in second place in the Championship, West Brom has made a strong start to the season with two wins from their opening two matches. They have scored five goals while conceding only two, showcasing a positive goal difference of three. Their recent form, with four wins in their last five matches, further underlines their momentum heading into this fixture. In contrast, Derby is positioned 16th in the standings and has struggled to find their footing this season. With no wins in their first two games, they have managed only one point from a draw and suffered a defeat. Their goal difference of -1 indicates defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded four goals while scoring three. This lack of form, highlighted by a run of three losses in their last five matches, raises concerns about their ability to compete against a high-flying opponent like West Brom. The model provides West Brom with a win probability of 65%, reflecting their current form and league position. However, a caveat exists; should Derby manage to exploit any defensive lapses from West Brom, they could potentially pull off an upset. For a deeper understanding of how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which details our in-house model that analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team emphasizes data-driven insights to guide predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Derby manage games at home, conceding just 1.42 goals per match. West Brom score 1.50 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
West Brom have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. West Brom are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Derby vs West Brom| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.30 | 3.35 | 2.12 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.40 | 3.42 | 2.06 | 1.99 | 1.79 | 1.77 | 1.92 | |
| 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.10 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 3.56 | 3.46 | 2.16 | 2.06 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 3.26 | 3.14 | 2.06 | 2.07 | 1.77 | — | — | |
| 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 3.40 | 3.42 | 2.08 | 1.99 | 1.79 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
| 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.12 | 2.00 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.97 | |
| 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 3.50 | 3.35 | 2.15 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.12 | 2.00 | 1.82 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Derby leads 5-1)Derby hold the edge in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings with 4 draws and 1 West Brom win. The record points to a tie Derby have controlled for years, though the draws show West Brom have at times kept it tight.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 3 |  QPR | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 4 |  Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 5 | West Brom | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Charlton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 | LDWWW |
| 20 | Derby | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 22 |  Cardiff | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 23 |  Preston | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 24 |  Burnley | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDerby have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Derby 0-3 and drew with Derby 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 3D 15L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
West Brom have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Middlesbrough 3-1 and lost to Newcastle 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 7L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersDerby6
West Brom1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Derby average 1.4 goals per match at home; West Brom 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
West Brom have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 40% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. West Brom player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
