Derby vs Birmingham Prediction, Tips & Odds
Derby vs Birmingham
Match Preview
The model favours Birmingham to win this match against Derby, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Birmingham currently sits in 8th place in the Championship standings, showcasing a solid start to the season with one win and two draws from their first three matches. Their goal-scoring has been decent, netting four goals while conceding three, leading to a positive goal difference of one. This performance suggests they have the potential to secure points consistently. On the other hand, Derby is struggling at the bottom of the table in 21st place, having yet to win a match this season with two losses and one draw from their three games. They have conceded more goals than they have scored, with a total of seven against just three scored, resulting in a goal difference of minus four. This lack of form, reflected in their recent record of no wins in five matches, poses significant challenges as they head into this fixture. The model gives Birmingham a higher win probability, reflecting their stronger early-season performance. However, it is essential to note that Derby has the home advantage at Pride Park, which could influence the match's outcome. The full method behind this prediction, which uses expected goals and actual results across the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team remains cautious, as a sudden shift in form could lead to an unexpected result.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Derby manage games at home, conceding just 1.41 goals per match. Birmingham score 1.32 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
Birmingham have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Birmingham are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Derby vs Birmingham| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.22 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.45 | 3.24 | 2.11 | 2.03 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.15 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 3.61 | 3.35 | 2.18 | 2.08 | 1.81 | — | — | |
| 3.17 | 3.12 | 2.11 | 2.09 | 1.75 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.15 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 3.46 | 3.24 | 2.13 | 2.01 | 1.77 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
| 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.20 | 1.98 | 1.77 | 1.75 | 1.97 | |
| 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.20 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.18 | 2.07 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Derby leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Derby and Birmingham, Derby has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Birmingham has secured 2 victories. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in narrow margins, particularly evident in the 1-0 and 2-1 results. However, Derby has also recorded heavier wins, such as a 4-0 victory, highlighting their ability to dominate at times. Birmingham's last win in this fixture came in April 2021, suggesting they have struggled to find success against Derby in recent encounters.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 17 | WWLDW |
| 2 |  West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 15 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 15 | DDWWD |
| 4 |  Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 14 | LDWWD |
| 6 |  QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | DDDLW |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 11 | DWLDD |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 23 |  Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 | DLLWL |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 | DLDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDerby have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Derby 1-2 and lost to Derby 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 17L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Birmingham have won 8 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Derby 1-2 and lost to Norwich 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 12D 8L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedDerby4-2-3-1Confirmed
Birmingham4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
15 playersDerby8
Birmingham7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Derby have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Birmingham 5.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Birmingham have generated 1.33 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 3.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Birmingham player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
