Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Match Preview
The model favours Chengdu Better City to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. As the current league leaders, Chengdu has been in strong form this season, securing 13 wins from 17 matches, with a solid goal difference of +21. Their defence has been particularly impressive, conceding only 16 goals, which highlights their ability to control games and limit opposition chances. On the other hand, Chongqing Tongliang Long sits in second place but has had a more mixed campaign, with 7 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses. While they have managed to score 21 goals, their goal difference of +2 indicates they have struggled defensively at times. The team’s recent form has also been inconsistent, with three wins in their last five matches but two losses, suggesting vulnerabilities that Chengdu could exploit. The model gives Chengdu Better City a win probability of 69.5%, while Chongqing Tongliang Long has a 10.9% chance of victory. One potential concern for Chengdu is their recent dip in form, marked by a draw and a loss in their last five games, which could affect their confidence. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 28% of matches. Chongqing Tongliang Long average 1.2 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Chengdu Better City have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Chengdu Better City win as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Chengdu Better City clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Chengdu Better City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.31 | 4.50 | 9.40 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.90 | 1.75 | |
| 1.32 | 4.95 | 8.40 | 1.63 | 2.21 | 1.93 | 1.76 | |
| 1.33 | 4.60 | 9.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| 1.34 | 5.29 | 8.92 | 1.65 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 1.31 | 4.34 | 6.86 | 1.64 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 4.75 | 8.00 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.33 | 5.25 | 9.00 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.35 | 5.16 | 8.75 | 1.66 | 2.25 | 1.93 | 1.78 | |
| 1.34 | 4.80 | 8.50 | 1.64 | 2.10 | 1.97 | 1.73 | |
| 1.33 | 4.75 | 8.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.34 | 4.70 | 8.00 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Superbet | 1.34 | 4.90 | 7.30 | 1.62 | 2.15 | 1.95 | 1.76 |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Chongqing Tongliang Long stands at 0 wins for Chengdu, 2 draws, and 0 wins for Chongqing. Both matches have ended in draws, indicating a tightly contested rivalry. The first match resulted in a high-scoring 3-3 draw, while the second was a goalless stalemate. This suggests that while neither team has secured a victory, the encounters have varied from high-scoring to low-scoring, reflecting a competitive balance. Neither side has won in their last two meetings, emphasizing the evenly matched nature of these fixtures.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 43 | DDDWW |
| 2 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 29 | DDLWL |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 28 | WWLLW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 25 | DLWLD |
| 5 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 25 | DLWWD |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 24 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 15 |  Tianjin Teda | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 11 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 11 | WLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChengdu Better City have won 7 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Chengdu Better City 1-1 and beat Chengdu Better City 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 6L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Chengdu Better City 1-1 and lost to Shenyang Urban 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 7L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersChengdu Better City
No reported absences
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Chengdu Better City have averaged 7.5 corners per match at home; Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Chengdu Better City have generated 1.88 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Chengdu Better City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
