Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
Match Preview
The model favours Chicago Fire to win this match against New York City FC, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned fifth in the league, Chicago Fire has accumulated 39 points from 25 matches, boasting a goal difference of +7. Despite recent struggles, with no wins in their last five outings, their overall season performance still indicates a stronger team compared to their opponents. New York City FC sits in tenth place, having played one more match than Chicago and earning 32 points. Their recent form has also been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five games. While they have a slightly better goal difference of +5 compared to Chicago, their inability to convert draws into wins has hindered their progress in the standings this season. The model assigns a 52.8% win probability to Chicago Fire, alongside a 23.5% chance for a draw and a 23.7% chance for New York City FC to win. Notably, there is a 61.3% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and a 61.4% chance for both teams to score. However, Chicago's recent form raises questions about their ability to return to winning ways. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
Chicago Fire have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Chicago Fire are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.89 | 3.78 | 3.55 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.46 | 2.49 | |
| 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 1.98 | 3.97 | 3.60 | 1.54 | 2.59 | — | — | |
| 1.96 | 3.52 | 3.20 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
Betano | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.53 | 2.57 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.49 | 2.38 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York City FC leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Chicago Fire and New York City FC, New York City FC has won 6 times, while Chicago Fire has secured only 1 victory, with 3 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided matchup, with New York City FC often prevailing by narrow margins, as seen in their 1-0 wins and a 2-0 victory, though there have been some closer contests, including two 1-1 draws. Chicago Fire's last win against New York City FC came over two years ago, highlighting the latter's dominance in recent encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 48 | LLWWW |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 34 | DLLDL |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChicago Fire have won 12 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Chicago Fire 1-3 and beat Chicago Fire 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 10D 13L from the last 43 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
New York City FC have won 7 of their last 24 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to New York City FC 2-0 and lost to Chicago Fire 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 17L from the last 41 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedChicago Fire4-4-2Confirmed
New York City FC4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersChicago Fire5
New York City FC7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Brandon Stevis has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Chicago Fire have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; New York City FC 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Chicago Fire have generated 1.38 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Chicago Fire player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
