Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Tips & Odds
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc
Match Preview
The model favours Coritiba to secure a victory against Chapecoense-sc, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Coritiba currently sits in 10th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 26 points from 19 matches. Their season has been a mix of ups and downs, with a record of seven wins, five draws, and seven losses. Key to their performance has been their scoring capability, with 25 goals scored, although they have also conceded 27, highlighting some defensive vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Chapecoense-sc finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 20th place, with only 10 points from 20 games. Their season has been particularly challenging, managing just one win, alongside seven draws and twelve losses. With only 19 goals scored and a troubling 41 goals conceded, their -22 goal difference reflects significant struggles both in attack and defense. According to the model, Coritiba has a win probability of 65%, while Chapecoense-sc's chances stand at 15%. One key market to note is the likelihood of a Coritiba win, which sits at approximately 55%. However, the model does acknowledge that if Chapecoense-sc can improve their defensive solidity, they might pose a greater challenge than their current form suggests. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model assessing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches. Chapecoense-sc average 1.1 goals per game.
Coritiba manage games at home, conceding just 1.31 goals per match. Chapecoense-sc score 1.08 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.9% probability.
Coritiba have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Coritiba win as the most likely scoreline at 17.9% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Coritiba clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Coritiba are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.51 | 3.90 | 6.50 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.52 | 3.92 | 6.30 | 1.94 | 1.83 | 1.99 | 1.71 | |
| 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 3.80 | 6.00 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.56 | 4.03 | 6.48 | 1.98 | 1.86 | 1.99 | 1.73 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc stands at 4 wins for each team, with 2 matches ending in draws over the last 10 encounters. This record indicates a balanced rivalry, with both sides having equal success. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests and a few high-scoring matches, such as the 3-3 draw and the 3-4 loss for Coritiba. Notably, there have been four matches decided by a single goal, highlighting competitive nature. The last time either team won consecutively was in 2017, suggesting a shift in momentum over the years.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | WWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 36 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 31 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 10 | Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 26 | LLWWD |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 20 | DWLWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 | LWLWD |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCoritiba have won 4 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Palmeiras 1-3 and beat Bahia 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 8L from the last 26 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chapecoense-sc have won 4 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Chapecoense-sc 2-2 and lost to Bahia 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 10D 17L from the last 38 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCoritiba
No reported absences
Chapecoense-sc
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Coritiba have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; Chapecoense-sc 3.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Coritiba have generated 0.95 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Coritiba player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
