Coritiba vs Gremio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Coritiba vs Gremio
Match Preview
The model favours Coritiba to win this match against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Coritiba currently occupies the 10th position in the league, having accumulated 39 points from 30 matches. Despite a recent dip in form, with only two draws and three losses in their last five games, they have a stronger overall season performance compared to their opponents. Notably, Coritiba has scored 38 goals this season, which reflects a more offensive capability than Gremio. On the other hand, Gremio finds itself in a precarious 18th position, struggling with only 31 points from 30 matches. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, with no wins in their last five outings, comprising three draws and two losses. With only 32 goals scored this season, Gremio's offensive struggles contribute to their challenging position in the standings, making it difficult for them to secure vital points. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Coritiba, while Gremio's probability sits at 25%. However, one key market percentage to note is the likelihood of a draw, which is estimated at 20%. A potential caveat for Coritiba is their inconsistency in recent matches, which could allow Gremio to exploit any defensive lapses. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines how our in-house model leverages expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Coritiba manage games at home, conceding just 1.47 goals per match. Gremio score 1.26 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Coritiba have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Coritiba clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Coritiba are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Coritiba vs Gremio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.02 | 3.46 | 3.45 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.90 | 1.87 | — | — | |
| 2.09 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 1.91 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 2.16 | 2.99 | 2.82 | 1.90 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.08 | 3.56 | 3.56 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.45 | 1.91 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.83 | 1.84 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Gremio leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Coritiba and Gremio, Gremio has won 7 times, Coritiba has won once, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided rivalry, with Gremio achieving several convincing victories, including a notable 5-1 win. Coritiba's only win in this stretch was a significant 4-0 result back in 2016, but since then, they have struggled, with their last victory over Gremio occurring over seven years ago. The matches tend to be competitive, but Gremio's dominance is evident in both the win count and the overall goal difference.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 39 | LDLLD |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 31 | LDDDL |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCoritiba have won 6 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Coritiba 1-1 and drew with Coritiba 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 13L from the last 38 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Gremio have won 3 of their last 24 matches on the road, drawing 10 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Remo 1-1 and lost to Botafogo 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 18D 17L from the last 53 games (34% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCoritiba
No reported absences
Gremio
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Ramon Abatti has averaged 3.3 yellow cards per match across 3 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Coritiba have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Gremio 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Coritiba have generated 1.16 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Coritiba player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
