Santos vs Palmeiras Prediction, Tips & Odds
Santos vs Palmeiras
Match Preview
The model favours Palmeiras to win against Santos with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Palmeiras currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 63 points from 30 matches. Their season has been characterised by a strong offensive display, scoring 52 goals while conceding only 22, resulting in a remarkable goal difference of +30. Despite a recent dip in form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, they remain a formidable opponent. Santos, on the other hand, is in eighth place with 42 points, having played the same number of matches. Their record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 10 losses highlights a struggle to find consistency this season. They have scored 46 goals but have also conceded 45, indicating a vulnerability at the back. Their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses suggests that they are still searching for stability as they approach the final stretch of the season. The model gives Palmeiras a strong win probability, reflecting their superior overall performance this season. However, Santos could exploit any complacency from Palmeiras, especially given their home advantage. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs a data-driven approach through expected goals and actual results to evaluate each fixture.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Santos manage games at home, conceding just 1.23 goals per match. Palmeiras score 1.80 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Palmeiras have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Palmeiras are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Santos vs Palmeiras| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.90 | 3.32 | 2.33 | 1.93 | 1.81 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.35 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.99 | 3.42 | 2.40 | 1.98 | 1.86 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
Betano | 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.37 | 2.07 | 1.78 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Palmeiras leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Santos and Palmeiras, the record shows Palmeiras winning 5 times, Santos winning 3 times, and 2 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow wins, including three matches decided by a single goal. Notably, the most recent encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, while Santos managed to secure a 2-1 victory in an earlier match this year. Overall, while Palmeiras has a slight edge in victories, the recent fixtures suggest a closely contested matchup rather than a one-sided affair.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 45 | WLDWW |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSantos have won 12 of their last 25 matches at home, drawing 10 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Santos 2-2 and beat Santos 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 17D 14L from the last 52 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Palmeiras have won 14 of their last 25 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Atletico Paranaense 0-2 and beat Fluminense 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 34W 12D 5L from the last 51 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSantos
No reported absences
Palmeiras
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Santos have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Palmeiras 6.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Palmeiras have generated 1.64 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Palmeiras player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
