PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II Prediction, Tips & Odds
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
Match Preview
The model favours PSV Eindhoven to win against Willem II, projecting a scoreline of 3-0. PSV currently sits in third place in the Eredivisie standings, having secured 19 points from nine matches with a record of six wins, one draw, and two losses. They have scored 27 goals while conceding only 12, resulting in a goal difference of +15. Despite a mixed form in their last five matches, where they have won two and lost three, their overall season performance highlights their attacking strength. On the other hand, Willem II is struggling at the bottom of the table in 18th place, with just two points from nine matches, having failed to win any games (0 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses). They have scored only nine goals while conceding 26, leading to a goal difference of -17. Their form is concerning, with four consecutive losses followed by a draw in their last five matches, showcasing significant difficulties in both attack and defense. The model indicates a high probability of a PSV win, with a projected score of 3-0. However, a caveat exists; PSV's inconsistent recent form could lead to an unexpected result if they fail to convert their chances early in the game. The full methodology of the prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
PSV Eindhoven have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 4-0 PSV Eindhoven win as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature PSV Eindhoven clean sheets, in line with their 14% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. PSV Eindhoven are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.03 | 13.75 | 28.00 | 1.09 | 5.35 | 1.84 | 1.84 | |
| 1.05 | 15.00 | 26.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.04 | 15.00 | 41.00 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.06 | 13.00 | 23.00 | 1.14 | 5.50 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.04 | 18.50 | 38.00 | 1.12 | 5.50 | 1.84 | 1.86 | |
Betano | 1.08 | 11.50 | 26.00 | 1.16 | 5.30 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PSV Eindhoven leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between PSV Eindhoven and Willem II, PSV has won 6 times, with 2 draws and 2 victories for Willem II. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable record for PSV, with three matches ending in 3-0 and 2-0 victories, showcasing their ability to secure heavy wins. However, there have been some competitive encounters, including a recent 1-1 draw and a narrow 2-1 win for Willem II in 2021. Overall, while PSV has had the upper hand historically, the presence of two wins for Willem II suggests they can compete effectively at times.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 23 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 19 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | WDDLL |
| 17 |  Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 2 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPSV Eindhoven have won 13 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat PSV Eindhoven 2-0 and beat PSV Eindhoven 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 5D 10L from the last 36 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Willem II have won 8 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Willem II 3-2 and lost to Utrecht 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 10L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPSV Eindhoven
No reported absences
Willem II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
PSV Eindhoven have averaged 6.6 corners per match at home; Willem II 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PSV Eindhoven have generated 2.74 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 58% of them. They put 6.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PSV Eindhoven player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
