Santos vs Bahia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Santos vs Bahia
Match Preview
The model favours Bahia to narrowly win against Santos, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bahia currently sits in 7th place in the Serie A standings, just ahead of Santos, who are in 8th. With 46 points from 29 matches, Bahia has demonstrated solid form this season, particularly with a strong goal difference of +7. Their recent performances include three wins in their last five matches, showcasing their ability to secure points consistently. Santos, on the other hand, is just behind Bahia in the table with 42 points from 30 matches. Their form has been slightly stronger of late, with four wins in their last five games, indicating they are in a competitive phase of the season. However, their goal difference of +1 suggests they have struggled defensively at times, which could be a factor in this matchup. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Bahia, suggesting they are favoured to take all three points. One potential caveat is Santos' recent resurgence in form, which could disrupt Bahia's plans if they manage to maintain their momentum. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilising an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Santos have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Santos are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Santos vs Bahia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.81 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 1.49 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.86 | 4.18 | 3.87 | 1.55 | 2.55 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 1.71 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.80 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.87 | 3.98 | 3.92 | 1.55 | 2.39 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.55 | 2.52 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Santos and Bahia stands at 3 wins for Santos, 4 draws, and 3 wins for Bahia over the last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no team holding a significant edge. The scorelines show a mix of tight contests, including four draws, and some lopsided results, such as Bahia's 3-0 win in May 2021 and Santos' 3-0 victory in May 2023. Notably, both teams have experienced periods of dominance, but neither has managed to secure a consistent upper hand in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 49 | LWLLW |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 45 | WLDWW |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSantos have won 12 of their last 25 matches at home, drawing 10 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Santos 2-2 and beat Santos 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 17D 14L from the last 52 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bahia have won 6 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Palmeiras 1-0 and lost to Atletico Paranaense 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 12L from the last 40 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersSantos5
Bahia3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Savio Pereira Sampaio has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Santos have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Bahia 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Santos have generated 1.91 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Santos player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
