Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
Match Preview
The model favours Cruzeiro to win this match against Mirassol, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Cruzeiro currently sits in 9th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 27 points from 20 matches. Their season has been a mix of results, with 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses. Key stats highlight that they have scored 26 goals while conceding 30, resulting in a goal difference of -4. Despite their struggles, their recent form shows some promise with two wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Mirassol finds themselves in the relegation zone at 18th place with 20 points from 19 games. They have recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses this season. With 21 goals scored and 26 conceded, their goal difference stands at -5. Mirassol's recent form has been inconsistent, with only two wins in their last five matches, which could impact their confidence going into this fixture. The model gives Cruzeiro a win probability of approximately 55%, reflecting their stronger league position and recent form. However, it's important to consider that Mirassol may surprise, especially if they can exploit any defensive lapses from Cruzeiro. For a thorough breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 45% of matches. Mirassol average 1.1 goals per game.
Cruzeiro manage games at home, conceding just 0.92 goals per match. Mirassol score 1.14 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Cruzeiro have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Cruzeiro win as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Cruzeiro clean sheets, in line with their 45% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Cruzeiro are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.71 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.71 | 3.50 | 4.95 | 1.95 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.70 | 3.25 | 5.00 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.75 | 3.59 | 5.36 | 2.02 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 1.72 | 3.52 | 4.53 | 2.00 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.75 | 3.40 | 5.00 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.76 | 3.60 | 5.09 | 1.99 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.20 | 1.95 | 1.84 | 1.86 | 1.84 | |
| 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.60 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.70 | 5.30 | 1.98 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.90 |
Superbet | 1.74 | 3.60 | 5.00 | 1.92 | 1.90 | 1.83 | 1.92 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.25 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Cruzeiro leads 1-0)In the last three matches between Cruzeiro and Mirassol, Cruzeiro has won once, with two matches ending in draws, while Mirassol has not secured a win. The scorelines indicate a closely contested rivalry, highlighted by two draws at 2-2 and 1-1, suggesting that matches tend to be tight. Cruzeiro's lone victory came with a narrow 2-1 scoreline, showing that while they have managed to win, the overall results have not been lopsided. Mirassol has not triumphed in these encounters, which may affect their confidence going forward.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 22 | 48 | DWLWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 42 | WDDWW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 40 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 35 | DDDDD |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | WWLWD |
| 6 |  Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 33 | DDDDW |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 23 | LWDWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 22 | DLWLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCruzeiro have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Chapecoense-sc 2-0 and lost to Botafogo 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 13D 7L from the last 38 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Mirassol have won 3 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Mirassol 3-1 and lost to Gremio 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 9D 15L from the last 36 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCruzeiro4-2-3-1Confirmed
Mirassol4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersCruzeiro5
Mirassol3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
L. Casagrande has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by L. Casagrande to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Cruzeiro have averaged 6.6 corners per match at home; Mirassol 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cruzeiro have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cruzeiro player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
