Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng Prediction, Tips & Odds
Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng
Match Preview
The model favours Dalian Zhixing to win against Shandong Luneng, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Dalian currently sits in third place in the league standings, having amassed 25 points from 17 matches. Their season has been a mixed bag, with eight wins but also eight losses, resulting in a negative goal difference of -6. Despite the inconsistency, their ability to score, with 25 goals, indicates a potential edge in attacking prowess. On the other hand, Shandong Luneng occupies the seventh position, with 21 points from the same number of matches. They have recorded eight wins but have also faced six losses, which reflects a slightly better defensive record with a goal difference of +2. While their recent form shows two wins in the last five matches, they have struggled to find consistency, which could hinder their chances in this matchup. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 55% in favour of Dalian Zhixing, reflecting their stronger league position and scoring capability. However, one caveat is that Dalian's defensive vulnerabilities could allow Shandong to capitalise on any mistakes. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, with the analysis conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team relying on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Dalian Zhixing have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Dalian Zhixing are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.72 | 1.42 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 2.75 | |
| 2.22 | 3.68 | 2.80 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.37 | 2.80 | |
| 2.25 | 4.00 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 2.31 | 3.97 | 2.83 | 1.45 | 2.78 | — | — | |
| 2.23 | 3.32 | 2.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.29 | 3.79 | 2.89 | 1.47 | 2.85 | 1.37 | 2.86 | |
| 2.15 | 3.70 | 2.90 | 1.44 | 2.55 | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.72 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.39 | 2.77 |
Superbet | 2.20 | 3.65 | 2.82 | 1.47 | 2.50 | 1.43 | 2.62 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Dalian Zhixing leads 2-1)In their last three encounters, Dalian Zhixing has won 2 matches while Shandong Luneng has won 1, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of results; Dalian Zhixing secured narrow victories with 2-1 and 2-0 wins, while Shandong Luneng's victory was more convincing at 4-1. This suggests that while Dalian Zhixing has had the upper hand recently, their wins have been close, contrasting with Shandong Luneng's heavier win. The competitive nature of these fixtures indicates that both teams have the potential to score, with Shandong Luneng's last win occurring in February 2025.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 43 | DDDWW |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 29 | DDLWL |
| 3 | Dalian Zhixing | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 28 | WWLLW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 25 | DLWLD |
| 5 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 25 | DLWWD |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 24 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 15 |  Tianjin Teda | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 11 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 11 | WLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDalian Zhixing have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-2 and lost to Shanghai Shenhua 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 5D 13L from the last 26 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Shandong Luneng have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Shandong Luneng 3-1 and lost to Beijing Guoan 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 7L from the last 29 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDalian Zhixing
No reported absences
Shandong Luneng
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Dalian Zhixing have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; Shandong Luneng 3.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Dalian Zhixing have generated 1.68 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Dalian Zhixing player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
