Excelsior vs Groningen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Excelsior vs Groningen
Match Preview
The model favours Excelsior to win against Groningen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 7th place, Excelsior has shown solid form this season with three wins, two draws, and two losses in their seven matches. Their goal difference of +6 highlights their offensive capabilities, having scored 15 goals while conceding 9. The team's recent form is promising, with two wins in their last three matches, which could give them the momentum needed for this encounter. On the other hand, Groningen occupies 8th place, also with 11 points from their seven games. Their record mirrors that of Excelsior, with three wins, two draws, and two losses. However, Groningen's goal difference of +2 indicates a less robust defense, having conceded 13 goals. Their recent form has been concerning, managing only one win in their last five outings. This inconsistency could be a significant factor as they face a well-organized Excelsior side. The model gives Excelsior a 40.8% win probability, with a notable 61.7% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. While Excelsior appears to have the upper hand, a key caveat is that Groningen's ability to score could make for a tighter contest than expected. For a deeper understanding of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team details our in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Groningen have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Groningen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Excelsior vs Groningen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.53 | 3.58 | 2.50 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.44 | 2.55 | |
| 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.64 | 3.73 | 2.58 | 1.54 | 2.59 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.38 | 2.35 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.61 | 3.69 | 2.58 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 2.57 | 3.65 | 2.57 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.50 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 1.40 | 2.63 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Groningen leads 7-3)In the last 10 encounters between Excelsior and Groningen, Groningen has won 7 times, while Excelsior has secured 3 victories, with no matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Groningen to dominate, with several heavy wins, including a 4-0 victory and two 4-2 results. Excelsior's wins have been narrow, with their highest margin being a 3-2 victory. Groningen's success is further highlighted by their recent performances, as Excelsior has not won against them since December 2021. Overall, the head-to-head record suggests a clear advantage for Groningen.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 23 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 19 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 7 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 14 | LWWDD |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 | LLDLD |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | WDDLL |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 2 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonExcelsior have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Excelsior 1-5 and lost to Excelsior 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 11L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Groningen have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Excelsior 1-5 and drew with GO Ahead Eagles 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 15L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedExcelsior4-3-3Confirmed
Groningen4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersExcelsior1
Groningen7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Richard Martens has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Excelsior have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Groningen 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Groningen have generated 1.70 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Groningen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
