Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Tips & Odds
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
Match Preview
The model favours a Falkirk victory with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Falkirk currently sits 11th in the league with a record of 1 win, 3 draws, and 4 losses from 8 matches, accumulating 6 points. Their goal difference of -4 reflects a modest offensive output, scoring 7 goals while conceding 11. Despite their challenges, Falkirk's recent form shows a slight improvement, with one win and two draws in their last five matches. Kilmarnock, on the other hand, is at the bottom of the table in 12th place, having earned just 5 points from their 8 games, with only 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses. They have struggled defensively, conceding 18 goals for a goal difference of -11. Their recent form shows a similar pattern, with one win and three draws in their last five matches, suggesting they can be competitive but still lack the consistency needed to climb the standings. The model projects a 51.2% chance of a Falkirk win, a 24.9% chance of a draw, and a 23.9% chance of a Kilmarnock victory. While the data leans in favour of Falkirk, one caveat is their tendency to struggle against teams that press them defensively, which Kilmarnock might exploit. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Falkirk have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Falkirk clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Falkirk are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 2.10 | |
| 1.83 | 3.60 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.98 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 2.13 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 3.85 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Falkirk leads 4-2)In the last six matches between Falkirk and Kilmarnock, Falkirk has won four times, while Kilmarnock has secured two victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, including a dominant 5-1 win for Falkirk and a notable 4-1 win for Kilmarnock in a friendly. However, Falkirk's recent performances show a tendency for higher scoring, with three wins by at least two goals. Kilmarnock's last victory against Falkirk came in 2022, suggesting they have struggled to maintain consistent success in this matchup.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 16 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 5 |  ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 | WDLWD |
| 6 |  Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 | WWDLW |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | LDWDL |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 5 | LDWDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFalkirk have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Dundee 1-2 and lost to Rangers 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 14L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kilmarnock have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kilmarnock 3-1 and drew with Aberdeen 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 13L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFalkirk
No reported absences
Kilmarnock
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Falkirk have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Kilmarnock 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Falkirk have generated 0.94 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 2.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Falkirk player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.