FC Juarez vs Puebla Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Juarez vs Puebla
Match Preview
The model favours FC Juarez to win against Puebla, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Juarez has shown a solid form in their recent matches, securing three wins, one draw, and only one loss in their last five games. This consistent performance indicates a team finding its rhythm and gaining confidence as the season progresses. In contrast, Puebla has struggled significantly, managing only one win in their last five games, with four consecutive losses. This downturn in form could impact their morale and overall performance heading into this fixture. Without a strong showing in recent matches, they may find it challenging to compete effectively against a Juarez side that is currently in better shape. The model output suggests a win probability of around 60% for Juarez, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat to consider is that if Puebla can turn around their form and deliver a surprising performance, they could pose a threat to Juarez's ambitions. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilising an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
FC Juarez have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature FC Juarez clean sheets, in line with their 4% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC Juarez are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Juarez vs Puebla| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.66 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.65 | 3.84 | 4.70 | 1.69 | 2.11 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.69 | 4.05 | 4.88 | 1.74 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 1.66 | 3.61 | 4.40 | 1.73 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.33 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.67 | 3.84 | 4.66 | 1.69 | 2.11 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| 1.61 | 4.00 | 4.80 | 1.63 | 2.20 | 1.61 | 2.08 | |
| 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.40 | 1.67 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.70 | 4.15 | 5.20 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 1.64 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.69 | 2.10 | 1.71 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.80 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between FC Juarez and Puebla stands at 3 wins for FC Juarez, 4 draws, and 3 wins for Puebla over the last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no clear dominance from either side. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests, including four matches that ended in draws, and several high-scoring games, such as a 4-4 draw. Both teams have experienced narrow victories, but there have also been a couple of two-goal margins. Puebla last won against FC Juarez in April 2023, suggesting that both teams have had their moments of success.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WLW |
| 4 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Juarez have won 4 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Juarez 1-5 and lost to FC Juarez 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 11L from the last 26 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Puebla have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Puebla 5-2 and lost to Cruz Azul 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 5D 13L from the last 24 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Juarez4-2-3-1Confirmed
Puebla4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Juarez
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
H. Gomez has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by H. Gomez to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FC Juarez have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Puebla 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Juarez have generated 1.09 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 2.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Juarez player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
