U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs CF Pachuca Prediction, Tips & Odds
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs CF Pachuca
Match Preview
The model favours CF Pachuca to win against U.N.A.M. - Pumas, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Pachuca has shown a stronger overall performance this season, currently riding a wave of form with four wins in their last five matches. This positive trend highlights their ability to secure points consistently, which will be crucial in this matchup. In contrast, U.N.A.M. - Pumas has struggled recently, managing only two wins in their last five fixtures. Their recent form of WLDWL suggests inconsistency, which could hinder their chances of earning a positive result. While they have had some successes this season, the lack of stability may be a concern heading into the game. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for CF Pachuca, with a key market percentage suggesting they are likely to score at least two goals. However, one caveat to consider is that if U.N.A.M. - Pumas can find their rhythm early, they could pose a significant challenge. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, the full methodology is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. U.N.A.M. - Pumas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs CF Pachuca| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.85 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 2.39 | 3.32 | 2.78 | 1.79 | 1.97 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.70 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.48 | 3.49 | 2.86 | 1.84 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 2.41 | 3.12 | 2.67 | 1.84 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.70 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.39 | 3.32 | 2.78 | 1.79 | 1.97 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
| 2.23 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.76 | 1.95 | 1.58 | 2.12 | |
| 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 1.75 | 1.91 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
Superbet | 2.30 | 3.35 | 2.95 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.75 | 1.75 | 1.92 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between U.N.A.M. - Pumas and CF Pachuca stands at 4 wins for each side, with 2 draws in their last 10 encounters. This indicates a balanced rivalry, though the scorelines suggest a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes. Both teams have recorded victories by a single goal, such as U.N.A.M.'s 1-0 win and Pachuca's 1-0 response. However, there have also been heavier wins, like Pachuca's 3-1 victory. The frequency of draws, particularly a 0-0 and two 1-1 matches, points to several tightly contested fixtures. Overall, neither team has dominated recently, with both having equal success in this matchup.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WLW |
| 4 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | LLW |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonU.N.A.M. - Pumas have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-3 and lost to U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 8L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
CF Pachuca have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to CF Pachuca 2-1 and lost to FC Cincinnati 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 9L from the last 27 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedU.N.A.M. - Pumas4-2-3-1Confirmed
CF Pachuca4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersU.N.A.M. - Pumas
No reported absences
CF Pachuca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
V. Arce has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
U.N.A.M. - Pumas have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; CF Pachuca 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
U.N.A.M. - Pumas have generated 0.86 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 3.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. U.N.A.M. - Pumas player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
