FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Paide, with a projected scoreline of 3-1. FC Levadia Tallinn currently sits at the top of the Meistriliiga standings, boasting an impressive record of 22 wins, 6 draws, and just 1 loss from 29 matches. Their goal-scoring ability is evident, having netted 81 goals while conceding only 21, resulting in a goal difference of 60. Their recent form is also strong, with four wins and a draw in their last five matches. On the other hand, Paide, positioned third in the league, has a record of 15 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses. They have scored 48 goals and conceded 36, leading to a goal difference of 12. While Paide has shown resilience, with three wins in their last five matches, their inconsistency could be a concern when facing a dominant side like FC Levadia Tallinn. The model output indicates that FC Levadia Tallinn has a solid win probability for this match. However, one caveat is that if Paide can produce a strong defensive performance and exploit any lapses in Levadia's backline, they might be able to secure an unexpected result. The full methodology, which relies on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team provides this data-driven insight to enhance your understanding of the matchup.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 73% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.39 | 4.05 | 6.55 | 1.36 | 2.69 | 1.52 | 2.30 | |
| 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.00 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.47 | 3.88 | 7.08 | 1.44 | 2.67 | — | — | |
| 1.39 | 4.34 | 5.03 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.80 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 1.42 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.40 | 4.05 | 6.88 | 1.36 | 2.69 | 1.52 | 2.34 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 4.30 | 5.80 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.30 | 2.30 | 1.40 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide, FC Levadia Tallinn has won 6 times, Paide has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Levadia achieving several narrow victories, including three matches decided by a single goal. However, Paide also recorded a notable 3-0 win in their favor. The presence of a draw and the competitive nature of several encounters suggest that while Levadia has the upper hand historically, the matches have not always been one-sided. Paide's last victory came in 2025, indicating a gap since their last success against Levadia.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 87 | 22 | 65 | 81 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 32 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 58 | WLLWW |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 57 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 47 | LLWLL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 32 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 35 | LWWDL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 74 | -24 | 31 | WLLLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 20 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Levadia Tallinn have won 16 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Levadia Tallinn 1-0 and beat FC Levadia Tallinn 10-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 33W 7D 5L from the last 45 games (73% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Paide have won 6 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 1-0 and beat Tammeka 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 10D 15L from the last 48 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Levadia Tallinn average 2.9 goals per match at home; Paide 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 73% of their matches and averaging 2.9 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.