FC Thun vs Lausanne Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Thun vs Lausanne
Match Preview
The model favours Lausanne to win this match against FC Thun, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lausanne currently sits in sixth place in the Super League, having played three matches so far this season. They have managed one win and two draws, accumulating five points. Their goal difference of +1 reflects a solid defensive effort, conceding only three goals while scoring four. This consistency in not losing any matches yet showcases their resilience. FC Thun, on the other hand, finds themselves in ninth place after three matches, with one win and two losses, totaling three points. Their goal difference of -6 indicates struggles at both ends of the pitch, having conceded 11 goals while scoring five. This season, they will need to improve their defensive capabilities significantly to compete effectively, as their recent form of two wins and three losses highlights ongoing challenges. The model output suggests a win probability of 55% for Lausanne, with a projected score of 2-1. However, it is essential to note that if Thun can find their scoring touch and improve defensively, they could pose a serious threat. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
FC Thun have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. FC Thun are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Thun vs Lausanne| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.05 | 3.55 | 3.30 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.48 | 2.40 | |
| 2.08 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 1.59 | 2.11 | 1.52 | 2.33 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 2.15 | 3.48 | 3.56 | 1.68 | 2.27 | — | — | |
| 2.01 | 3.47 | 3.10 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.20 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.10 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 1.60 | 2.09 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 1.52 | 2.33 | 1.47 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.35 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.52 | 2.37 |
Superbet | 2.07 | 3.50 | 3.35 | 1.61 | 2.22 | 1.52 | 2.37 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.13 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between FC Thun and Lausanne stands at 4 wins for each team, with 2 matches ending in draws. This indicates a balanced rivalry, though the scorelines reveal some notable extremes, including a significant 5-1 victory for FC Thun in their most recent encounter. Additionally, both teams have had narrow victories, with several matches decided by a single goal. The frequency of draws, particularly the 3-3 result in May 2023, highlights that when these teams meet, matches can be competitive and unpredictable. There has been no recent dominance by either side, further emphasizing the evenly matched nature of their past fixtures.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  BSC Young Boys | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 15 | DWDWD |
| 3 |  FC Sion | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  FC ST. Gallen | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 10 | WLLDW |
| 5 |  FC Basel 1893 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 | LLDWW |
| 6 |  FC Luzern | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 | DWDWD |
| 7 | FC Thun | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 10 | Lausanne | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | LDLLD |
| 11 |  Grasshoppers | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 5 | DWLLL |
| 12 |  Servette FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | LLDWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Thun have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with FC Thun 0-0 and drew with FC Thun 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 13L from the last 35 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lausanne have won 5 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Lausanne 3-1 and drew with FC Thun 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 18L from the last 34 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Thun4-4-2Confirmed
Lausanne4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Thun
No reported absences
Lausanne
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Thun have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Lausanne 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Thun have generated 1.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Thun player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.