Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Tips & Odds
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
Match Preview
The model favours Feyenoord to win, projecting a scoreline of 3-1 against Fortuna Sittard. Currently sitting at the top of the Eredivisie, Feyenoord has been in exceptional form this season, with a record of seven wins, two draws, and no losses from their nine matches. They have scored 31 goals while conceding just 10, resulting in a goal difference of 21. Their last five matches have seen them secure five consecutive victories, showcasing their attacking prowess and solid defence. On the other hand, Fortuna Sittard occupies seventh place in the standings and has had a mixed season thus far, with four wins, two draws, and two losses from eight games. They have managed to score 14 goals but have also conceded 15, leading to a negative goal difference of one. While their recent form shows three wins in their last five matches, they will need to significantly improve their defensive capabilities to challenge the league leaders effectively. The model output indicates a high win probability for Feyenoord, reflecting their dominant position in the league and recent performances. However, a potential caveat for Feyenoord could be complacency, as they face a Fortuna Sittard side that is capable of springing surprises. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Feyenoord have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Feyenoord win as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Feyenoord clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Feyenoord are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.11 | 8.80 | 15.75 | 1.19 | 3.82 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 1.11 | 9.00 | 17.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.14 | 8.50 | 13.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.14 | 8.00 | 15.00 | 1.25 | 4.00 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.12 | 10.20 | 18.00 | 1.23 | 3.95 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 1.16 | 8.00 | 15.00 | 1.26 | 3.85 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 1.12 | 8.50 | 17.00 | 1.22 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Feyenoord leads 7-0)Feyenoord has won 7 of the last 10 matches against Fortuna Sittard, with 3 matches ending in a draw and Fortuna Sittard failing to secure a win. The scorelines indicate a dominant record for Feyenoord, featuring several convincing victories, including a 5-0 win in December 2021 and a 4-2 win in February 2023. The matches have varied in competitiveness; however, with only three draws, it suggests a tendency for Feyenoord to control the encounters. Fortuna Sittard has not won against Feyenoord in this stretch, highlighting a significant challenge for them historically.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 23 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 19 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 16 |  Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 6 | LWDDL |
| 18 |  Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 2 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFeyenoord have won 13 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Feyenoord 3-2 and beat Feyenoord 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 7D 5L from the last 34 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fortuna Sittard have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Fortuna Sittard 2-2 and beat Genk 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 13L from the last 33 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFeyenoord
No reported absences
Fortuna Sittard
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Feyenoord have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; Fortuna Sittard 3.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Feyenoord have generated 2.51 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 7.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Feyenoord player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
