Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction, Tips & Odds
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
Match Preview
The model favours Red Bull Salzburg to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently sitting in second place in the Bundesliga, Salzburg has been in excellent form this season, boasting five wins and two draws from their seven matches. They have scored 18 goals while conceding just four, resulting in a remarkable goal difference of +14. This strong offensive and defensive performance highlights their dominance in the league. In contrast, Grazer AK finds themselves in ninth position with just two wins from their seven matches. Their season has been challenging, with a total of six goals scored and 16 conceded, leading to a goal difference of -10. While they have managed to secure two wins and two draws in their last five matches, their overall form indicates a struggle to maintain consistency and compete against stronger opponents. The model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 65.6% probability of winning, with a 20.9% chance of a draw and a 13.5% likelihood of a Grazer AK victory. Additionally, there is a 62.5% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. One caveat to consider is that if Grazer AK can exploit any defensive lapses from Salzburg, they could potentially disrupt the predicted outcome. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model focused on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Red Bull Salzburg have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Red Bull Salzburg win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Red Bull Salzburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.05 | 4.33 | 1.55 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.58 | 2.20 | |
| 5.27 | 4.51 | 1.60 | 1.58 | 2.48 | — | — | |
| 4.66 | 3.98 | 1.57 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.57 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 5.50 | 4.10 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 4.97 | 4.33 | 1.57 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
Betano | 4.70 | 4.15 | 1.62 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.60 | 2.18 |
BetVictor | 5.25 | 4.33 | 1.57 | 1.54 | 2.28 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Red Bull Salzburg leads 3-1)In the last six matches between Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg, the record shows Grazer AK winning once, drawing twice, and Red Bull Salzburg winning three times. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitiveness, with two matches ending in draws and a notable heavy defeat for Grazer AK, losing 6-0 in the Cup. While Grazer AK managed a narrow 4-3 victory in a friendly, Salzburg's dominant 5-0 win highlights their strength in this matchup. Overall, the results suggest a slight edge for Red Bull Salzburg, particularly in their ability to secure larger margins of victory.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 24 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 21 | WDWDW |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 19 | WLDLW |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 17 | WWLWL |
| 5 |  Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 14 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  WSG Wattens | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 | WLLDW |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 9 | LDDWD |
| 10 |  Austria Vienna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 | LLDWL |
| 11 |  SCR Altach | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 | LWLLL |
| 12 |  Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 5 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGrazer AK have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 and drew with Wolfsberger AC 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 9D 12L from the last 36 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Red Bull Salzburg have won 11 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Red Bull Salzburg 2-2 and drew with Grazer AK 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 9D 13L from the last 46 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedGrazer AK3-1-4-2Confirmed
Red Bull Salzburg4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersGrazer AK
No reported absences
Red Bull Salzburg
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Stefan Ebner has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Grazer AK have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Red Bull Salzburg 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Red Bull Salzburg have generated 2.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 7.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Red Bull Salzburg player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
