Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa Prediction, Tips & Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
Match Preview
The model favours Guadalajara Chivas to win against Necaxa, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Chivas currently sits in 3rd place in the Liga MX standings, having accumulated 18 points from 10 matches. Their form has been solid, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. The team has scored 17 goals while conceding 10, showcasing a positive goal difference of 7, which highlights their offensive capabilities and defensive resilience. In contrast, Necaxa struggles in 17th place, with just 8 points from their 10 fixtures. Their recent form is concerning, with no wins in their last five matches (four losses and one draw). The team has scored only 12 goals while allowing 20, resulting in a negative goal difference of 8. This stark contrast in performance suggests that Necaxa will face significant challenges in overcoming a stronger Chivas side. The model indicates a strong probability of a Chivas victory, with a projected score of 2-0. One key market to consider is Chivas' likelihood of winning by two or more goals. However, an honest caveat is that if Chivas becomes complacent, or if Necaxa manages to tighten their defense, it could lead to a closer match than expected. For detailed insights on this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas win as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Guadalajara Chivas clean sheets, in line with their 42% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.33 | 5.25 | 6.95 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 1.25 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.33 | 3.20 | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 1.37 | 5.37 | 8.19 | 1.38 | 3.14 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.72 | 6.28 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 4.60 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.35 | 5.58 | 8.12 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.37 | 5.70 | 8.50 | 1.36 | 3.15 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.75 | 8.00 | 1.33 | 3.13 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa, Guadalajara Chivas has won 7 times, there has been 1 draw, and Necaxa has won 2 matches. The scorelines indicate a generally strong performance by Guadalajara Chivas, with several victories featuring narrow margins, such as 1-0 and 2-0, alongside a more decisive 4-0 win. Necaxa's victories include a close 3-2 win and a 1-0 win, but overall, they have struggled against Chivas, with their last win occurring in January 2025. The head-to-head record suggests a notable advantage for Guadalajara Chivas.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 24 | WDWDL |
| 2 |  Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 | DLDLW |
| 3 |  Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 | WDWDL |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 20 | DDLDW |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 | WDDLW |
| 6 |  Club Queretaro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 20 | LWWDW |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 11 | LLWDL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 9 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 31 | -23 | 4 | LDLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGuadalajara Chivas have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Tigres UANL 1-1 and beat Club America 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 12D 8L from the last 40 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Necaxa have won 4 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with CF Pachuca 3-3 and lost to Atletico San Luis 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 18L from the last 36 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGuadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Necaxa
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Vicente Jassiel Reynoso Arce has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 7.5 corners per match at home; Necaxa 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
