Toluca vs Club Tijuana Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toluca vs Club Tijuana
Match Preview
The model favours Toluca to win against Club Tijuana, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Toluca currently sits at the top of the Liga MX standings, having played 10 matches this season, securing 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. They have scored 23 goals while conceding 12, resulting in a solid goal difference of 11. Despite a mixed recent form, their overall season performance highlights their attacking strength and defensive resilience. On the other hand, Club Tijuana is positioned 8th in the league, having played 9 matches with 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. They have a goal tally of 14 for and 13 against, yielding a modest goal difference of 1. Their recent form has not been encouraging, with only one win in their last five matches, reflecting a struggle to maintain consistency. The model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Toluca, with the scoreline projected at 2-1. However, the caveat is that if Club Tijuana can tighten their defense and take advantage of any lapses in Toluca’s form, they could pose a challenge. For a detailed breakdown of how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Toluca have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Toluca win as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Toluca clean sheets, in line with their 36% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Toluca are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toluca vs Club Tijuana| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.33 | 5.15 | 7.10 | 1.36 | 2.69 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.38 | 5.45 | 6.80 | 1.40 | 2.97 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.34 | 5.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.35 | 4.60 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 1.40 | 5.25 | 7.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.34 | 5.15 | 7.15 | 1.36 | 2.69 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
Betano | 1.40 | 5.40 | 7.80 | 1.44 | 2.87 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.40 | 2.64 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Toluca leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Toluca and Club Tijuana, Toluca has won 6 times, drawn 2, and Club Tijuana has secured 2 victories. The scorelines suggest a notable advantage for Toluca, with several convincing wins, including a 4-0 and a 2-0 victory, indicating their ability to dominate matches. While there were some close contests, such as a 3-3 draw and a narrow 2-1 win for Club Tijuana, overall, the results reflect a pattern of Toluca's consistency. Club Tijuana last won against Toluca in early 2023, highlighting the challenges they have faced in recent encounters.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 24 | WDWDL |
| 2 | Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 | DLDLW |
| 3 |  Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 | WDWDL |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 20 | DDLDW |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 | WDDLW |
| 6 |  Club Queretaro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 20 | LWWDW |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 11 | LLWDL |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 9 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 31 | -23 | 4 | LDLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToluca have won 16 of their last 26 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Atletico San Luis 1-1 and lost to Santos Laguna 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 11D 14L from the last 47 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Club Tijuana have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with FC Juarez 1-1 and drew with CF Pachuca 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 13D 10L from the last 33 games (30% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersToluca
No reported absences
Club Tijuana
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Toluca have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Club Tijuana 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Toluca have generated 1.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Toluca player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
