JFK Ventspils vs JDFS Alberts Prediction, Tips & Odds
JFK Ventspils vs JDFS Alberts
Match Preview
The model favours JDFS Alberts to win against JFK Ventspils, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. JDFS Alberts currently holds the fifth position in the league, showcasing a solid season with six wins from twelve matches. They have scored 25 goals while conceding 20, resulting in a goal difference of +5. Their form has been mixed recently, but they remain a competitive side, especially against lower-ranked opponents. In contrast, JFK Ventspils finds itself languishing in twelfth place, having secured only one win in eleven matches. With just seven points and a goal difference of -8, their struggles are evident. Despite a recent uptick in form with two wins in their last five matches, the team's overall performance has not been sufficient to climb the standings, and they continue to face challenges defensively. The model gives JDFS Alberts a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market statistic suggests that JDFS Alberts is expected to dominate possession, which could be crucial in determining the match outcome. However, if JFK Ventspils manages to capitalize on set pieces or defensive errors, they could pose a threat. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
JDFS Alberts have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. JDFS Alberts are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
JFK Ventspils vs JDFS Alberts| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.73 | 1.55 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 3.98 | 3.66 | 1.70 | 1.54 | 2.19 | 1.53 | 2.24 | |
| 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.62 | 3.54 | 1.76 | 1.57 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.17 | 1.82 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.75 | 3.30 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 3.70 | 4.10 | 1.67 | 1.57 | 2.35 | — | — | |
| 4.05 | 3.66 | 1.72 | 1.54 | 2.19 | 1.53 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 3.70 | 3.80 | 1.72 | 1.53 | 2.18 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (JDFS Alberts leads 5-0)In the last six matches between JFK Ventspils and JDFS Alberts, JDFS Alberts has won five times, with one match ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a clear dominance by JDFS Alberts, as they have consistently secured victories, often by a margin of two goals. The lone draw, a 1-1 result, highlights a rare moment of competitiveness from JFK Ventspils. Overall, JFK Ventspils has not won any of the last six encounters, making it evident that they face a significant challenge against JDFS Alberts in their head-to-head history.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 28 | WDDWL |
| 6 |  Super Nova 2 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | WLDLD |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJFK Ventspils have won 2 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Super Nova 2 0-2 and lost to Smiltene 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 8D 14L from the last 27 games (19% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
JDFS Alberts have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Tukums II 1-1 and beat JFK Ventspils 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 6D 7L from the last 28 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJFK Ventspils
No reported absences
JDFS Alberts
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
JFK Ventspils average 1.2 goals per match at home; JDFS Alberts 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
JDFS Alberts have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 54% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. JDFS Alberts player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
