Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Tips & Odds
Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils
Match Preview
The model favours Riga Mariners to win against JFK Ventspils, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Riga Mariners are currently positioned third in the league, showcasing an impressive unbeaten run with eight wins and four draws from twelve matches. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 25 goals while conceding only 10, resulting in a strong goal difference of +15. This solid form, especially with four wins in their last five matches, positions them as the clear favourites. On the other hand, JFK Ventspils sit in tenth place, struggling with only two wins in their twelve games, alongside four draws and six losses. Their goal difference of -5 reflects their difficulties, with 15 goals scored but 20 conceded. Recent form has seen them secure just two wins in their last five matches, indicating inconsistency and challenges in both attack and defence. The model outputs a win probability of over 60% for Riga Mariners, reflecting their strong season so far. However, a caveat to consider is that football can be unpredictable; a lapse in concentration or a key player missing could impact their performance. For a detailed overview of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Riga Mariners have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Riga Mariners win as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Riga Mariners clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Riga Mariners are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.30 | 4.80 | 6.75 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.27 | 5.60 | 6.80 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.73 | 1.92 | |
| 1.29 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 1.29 | 5.11 | 6.41 | 1.37 | 2.74 | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 4.80 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 1.36 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 1.44 | 2.62 | — | — | |
| 1.28 | 5.60 | 7.05 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.73 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 1.31 | 5.00 | 6.80 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.35 | 4.80 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.62 | 1.63 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Riga Mariners leads 2-1)The head-to-head record between Riga Mariners and JFK Ventspils shows Riga Mariners winning 2 matches, with 1 win for JFK Ventspils and no draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive series, with each match decided by a single goal, suggesting tight encounters. Notably, JFK Ventspils' most recent victory came in May 2025, while Riga Mariners have won the last two meetings. This pattern suggests that while both teams have had their successes, Riga Mariners have gained the upper hand recently.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 28 | WDDWL |
| 6 |  Super Nova 2 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | WLDLD |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRiga Mariners have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tukums II 4-2 and drew with JFK Ventspils 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 3L from the last 29 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
JFK Ventspils have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Riga Mariners 1-1 and drew with Rēzekne FA 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 8D 14L from the last 27 games (19% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRiga Mariners
No reported absences
JFK Ventspils
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Riga Mariners average 2.6 goals per match at home; JFK Ventspils 1.2 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Riga Mariners have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 59% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. Riga Mariners player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
