Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Tips & Odds

Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils

1. LigaRegular Season - 14
Riga Mariners
#3 · 1. Liga
DWWWW
VS
JFK Ventspils
#10 · 1. Liga
WDLLW

Match Preview

The model favours Riga Mariners to win against JFK Ventspils, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Riga Mariners are currently positioned third in the league, showcasing an impressive unbeaten run with eight wins and four draws from twelve matches. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 25 goals while conceding only 10, resulting in a strong goal difference of +15. This solid form, especially with four wins in their last five matches, positions them as the clear favourites. On the other hand, JFK Ventspils sit in tenth place, struggling with only two wins in their twelve games, alongside four draws and six losses. Their goal difference of -5 reflects their difficulties, with 15 goals scored but 20 conceded. Recent form has seen them secure just two wins in their last five matches, indicating inconsistency and challenges in both attack and defence. The model outputs a win probability of over 60% for Riga Mariners, reflecting their strong season so far. However, a caveat to consider is that football can be unpredictable; a lapse in concentration or a key player missing could impact their performance. For a detailed overview of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.

Head to Head

Last 3 Meetings (Riga Mariners leads 2-1)
2 Riga Mariners0 Draw1 JFK Ventspils
21 Mar
JFK Ventspils
0-1
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
Sept 25
JFK Ventspils
1-2
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
May 25
Riga Mariners
1-2
JFK Ventspils
1. Liga

Riga Mariners hold the edge in this fixture, winning 2 of the last 3 meetings with 0 draws and 1 JFK Ventspils win. The record points to a tie Riga Mariners have controlled for years, though the draws show JFK Ventspils have at times kept it tight.

1. Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Metta / LU
13111146113534
WWWWD
2
Valmiera / BSS
13102135122332
WWWWD
3
Riga Mariners
1384126121428
LWWWD
4
Leevon / PPK
138322216627
WLLDW
5
JDFS Alberts
137242821723
WLWDW
6
Mārupe
136162219319
LWLLL
10
JFK Ventspils
132471623-710
LWDLW
12
Tukums II
122281631-158
LLLLD
13
Rēzekne FA
121291036-265
DLLWL
14
Smiltene
120481233-214
LLLDL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Riga MarinersHome
3W3D0L
6 playedGF 11 · GA 62.00 pts/game
JFK VentspilsAway
2W2D3L
7 playedGF 13 · GA 141.14 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Riga MarinersJFK Ventspils
2.64Goals p.g.1.38
1.2Goals conceded p.g.1.54
36%Clean sheets25%
60%Win rate25%
3.84Avg goals in match2.92
Riga Mariners
Recent Form

Riga Mariners have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with BFC Daugavpils 3-3 and beat Mārupe 2-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 2L from the last 25 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Riga MarinersAll competitions
11 Jul
Riga Mariners
3-3
BFC Daugavpils
Cup
04 Jul
JDFS Alberts
0-4
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
27 Jun
Riga Mariners
2-0
Mārupe
1. Liga
20 Jun
Riga Mariners
1-0
JDFS Alberts
Cup
14 Jun
Skanste
0-2
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
30 May
RFK/RFS
0-11
Riga Mariners
Cup
15
Win
60%
8
Draw
32%
2
Lost
8%
JFK Ventspils
Recent Form

JFK Ventspils have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat JFK Ventspils 0-3 and drew with Rēzekne FA 1-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 6W 7D 11L from the last 24 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: JFK VentspilsAll competitions
11 Jul
Skanste
0-3
JFK Ventspils
1. Liga
04 Jul
Rēzekne FA
1-1
JFK Ventspils
1. Liga
28 Jun
JFK Ventspils
0-2
Valmiera / BSS
1. Liga
20 Jun
JFK Ventspils
1-3
Leevon / PPK
Cup
14 Jun
Mārupe
1-2
JFK Ventspils
1. Liga
01 Jun
Upesciema Warriors
0-3
JFK Ventspils
Cup
6
Win
25%
7
Draw
29%
11
Lost
46%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Riga Mariners

No reported absences

JFK Ventspils

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.