Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Tips & Odds
Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils


Match Preview
The model favours Riga Mariners to win against JFK Ventspils, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Riga Mariners are currently positioned third in the league, showcasing an impressive unbeaten run with eight wins and four draws from twelve matches. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 25 goals while conceding only 10, resulting in a strong goal difference of +15. This solid form, especially with four wins in their last five matches, positions them as the clear favourites. On the other hand, JFK Ventspils sit in tenth place, struggling with only two wins in their twelve games, alongside four draws and six losses. Their goal difference of -5 reflects their difficulties, with 15 goals scored but 20 conceded. Recent form has seen them secure just two wins in their last five matches, indicating inconsistency and challenges in both attack and defence. The model outputs a win probability of over 60% for Riga Mariners, reflecting their strong season so far. However, a caveat to consider is that football can be unpredictable; a lapse in concentration or a key player missing could impact their performance. For a detailed overview of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Head to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Riga Mariners leads 2-1)





Riga Mariners hold the edge in this fixture, winning 2 of the last 3 meetings with 0 draws and 1 JFK Ventspils win. The record points to a tie Riga Mariners have controlled for years, though the draws show JFK Ventspils have at times kept it tight.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 11 | 35 | 34 | WWWWD | |
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 12 | 23 | 32 | WWWWD | |
| 3 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 28 | LWWWD | |
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 27 | WLLDW | |
| 5 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 23 | WLWDW | |
| 6 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 19 | LWLLL | |
| 10 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 10 | LWDLW | |
| 12 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 8 | LLLLD | |
| 13 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL | |
| 14 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season
Riga Mariners have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with BFC Daugavpils 3-3 and beat Mārupe 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 2L from the last 25 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.













JFK Ventspils have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat JFK Ventspils 0-3 and drew with Rēzekne FA 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 7D 11L from the last 24 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players
Riga Mariners
No reported absences
JFK Ventspils
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.




