Smiltene vs Rīgas FS II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Smiltene vs Rīgas FS II
Match Preview
The model favours Rīgas FS II to win the match against Smiltene, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Rīgas FS II currently sits in 11th place with 9 points, having secured 2 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses this season. Their goal difference of -11 reflects a struggle defensively, but they have shown some signs of life in recent matches, scoring 15 goals while conceding 26. In contrast, Smiltene is struggling significantly, positioned at the bottom of the table in 14th place with just 4 points from 12 matches. They have yet to register a win this season, with a record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal difference of -21 indicates a significant defensive weakness, having conceded 33 goals while only managing to score 12. The recent form, with only one win in the last five matches, suggests a lack of momentum. The model gives Rīgas FS II a win probability of approximately 55%, with the projected score being 2-1. One caveat to consider is that Rīgas FS II has struggled with consistency, and an off day could lead to a surprising result. For a detailed explanation of the prediction method, including expected goals and actual results analysis, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Head to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Rīgas FS II leads 6-1)Rīgas FS II hold the edge in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 meetings with 2 draws and 1 Smiltene win. The record points to a tie Rīgas FS II have controlled for years, though the draws show Smiltene have at times kept it tight.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 11 | 35 | 34 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 12 | 23 | 32 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 28 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Leevon / PPK | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 27 | WLLDW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 23 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 19 | LWLLL |
| 11 | Rīgas FS II | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 | DLWWL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 13 |  Rēzekne FA | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 14 | Smiltene | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSmiltene have won 0 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Smiltene 2-4 and lost to Smiltene 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 7D 15L from the last 24 games (8% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Rīgas FS II have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Mārupe 1-4 and lost to Skanste 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 6D 10L from the last 22 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSmiltene
No reported absences
Rīgas FS II
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
