Riga FC II vs Super Nova 2 Prediction, Tips & Odds
Riga FC II vs Super Nova 2
Match Preview
The model favours Super Nova 2 to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Riga FC II. Super Nova 2 currently sits in 7th place in the league, just three points ahead of their opponents. Their season has been fairly consistent, with five wins and four draws from 12 matches, resulting in a positive goal difference of +2. The team's defensive record has been solid, conceding only 17 goals, which is crucial for their competitive standing. Riga FC II, on the other hand, occupies 8th place with 16 points from 12 games. Their season has been somewhat erratic, with a record of five wins, one draw, and six losses. Although they have scored 19 goals, their goal difference of -3 indicates defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 22 goals. Their recent form shows three wins in the last five matches, but inconsistency remains a concern. According to the model, Super Nova 2 has a win probability of approximately 55%, with the projected score being 2-1. One key market to consider is their strong defensive performance, which could be pivotal in this match. However, if Riga FC II can capitalise on their attacking opportunities, they may pose a greater threat than expected. For a detailed breakdown of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Riga FC II have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Riga FC II are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Riga FC II vs Super Nova 2| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.80 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
| 2.00 | 3.75 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 2.62 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.80 | 2.94 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 2.69 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.70 | 2.90 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 11 | 35 | 34 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 12 | 23 | 32 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 28 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Leevon / PPK | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 27 | WLLDW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 23 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 19 | LWLLL |
| 7 | Super Nova 2 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 19 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 16 | WWWLL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 13 |  Rēzekne FA | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 14 |  Smiltene | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRiga FC II have won 8 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tukums II 2-0 and beat Smiltene 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 2D 10L from the last 22 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Super Nova 2 have won 1 of their last 5 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Super Nova 2 1-1 and lost to Metta / LU 7-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 3L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRiga FC II
No reported absences
Super Nova 2
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Riga FC II average 1.9 goals per match at home; Super Nova 2 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Riga FC II have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 45% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Riga FC II player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
