Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA Prediction, Tips & Odds
Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA
Match Preview
The model favours Rēzekne FA to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Both teams are struggling in the league, but Rēzekne FA holds a slight edge in their overall performance this season. Currently sitting in 13th place, they have secured one win, two draws, and nine losses from their 12 matches, scoring 10 goals while conceding 36, giving them a goal difference of -26. Despite their difficulties, their recent form shows a flicker of hope with one win and one draw in their last five matches. On the other hand, Smiltene finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 14th place, with no wins so far this season. Their record stands at four draws and eight losses, with 12 goals scored and 33 conceded, resulting in a goal difference of -21. Their recent form has not improved, as they have managed just one win in their last five matches, with the majority of those resulting in losses. The model gives Rēzekne FA a win probability of 45%, while Smiltene's chances sit at 25%. The key market percentage indicates that Rēzekne FA is considered the favourite to win. However, a potential caveat is that both teams have been inconsistent, and if Smiltene can find some momentum, they might pull off an upset. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilises an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Smiltene have been the stronger side, winning 8% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Smiltene are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
| 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.02 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.38 | 2.85 | |
Betano | 1.93 | 3.90 | 3.00 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Smiltene and Rēzekne FA stands at 3 wins for each side and 3 draws over their last 10 encounters. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no team dominating the series. The matches have produced a mix of scorelines, including high-scoring draws such as 3-3 and a notable 5-1 win for Smiltene. While the recent results show both teams can secure victories, there have also been several closely contested matches, reflecting the competitive nature of these fixtures. The last win for Rēzekne FA came in 2025, suggesting a potential shift in momentum toward Smiltene in recent meetings.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 11 | 35 | 34 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 12 | 23 | 32 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 28 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Leevon / PPK | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 27 | WLLDW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 23 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 19 | LWLLL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 13 | Rēzekne FA | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 14 | Smiltene | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSmiltene have won 0 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Smiltene 2-4 and lost to Smiltene 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 7D 15L from the last 24 games (8% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Rēzekne FA have won 2 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rīgas FS II 3-0 and lost to Ķekava / Auda 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 15L from the last 23 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSmiltene
No reported absences
Rēzekne FA
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Smiltene average 1.3 goals per match at home; Rēzekne FA 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Smiltene have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 8% of their matches and averaging 1.3 goals per game. Smiltene player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
