Tukums II vs Rīgas FS II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tukums II vs Rīgas FS II
Match Preview
The model favours Rīgas FS II to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Tukums II. Rīgas FS II currently sits in 10th place in the league, with a season record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses. While their goal-scoring has been modest, with 15 goals scored and 26 conceded, they have shown a slight improvement in form recently, managing to secure two wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Tukums II is in 11th place, having played the same number of matches but with a significantly poorer record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal difference of -15 highlights their defensive struggles, as they have conceded 31 goals while scoring only 16. With four losses in their last five matches, they have struggled to find form and may find it challenging to turn things around against a rival that has shown some recent resilience. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Rīgas FS II, with the projected score being 2-1. However, one caveat is that if Tukums II can improve their defensive performance and capitalize on any mistakes from Rīgas FS II, they could potentially spring a surprise. The full method, which utilizes expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis has been prepared by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Tukums II have been the stronger side, winning 24% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Tukums II are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tukums II vs Rīgas FS II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.20 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.64 | 3.52 | 2.22 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.37 | 2.71 | |
| 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.58 | 3.57 | 2.18 | 1.41 | 2.60 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.26 | 2.18 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.69 | 3.52 | 2.24 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.37 | 2.78 | |
Betano | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.22 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 2.62 | 3.35 | 2.35 | 1.47 | 2.40 | 1.42 | 2.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Rīgas FS II leads 6-1)In the last eight matches between Tukums II and Rīgas FS II, Rīgas FS II has won six times, while Tukums II has won once and there has been one draw. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Rīgas FS II, with several heavy victories, including two matches ending 6-0 and another at 5-0. Tukums II's only victory came in a narrow 1-0 win, suggesting that when Rīgas FS II wins, they often do so decisively. Tukums II last triumphed over Rīgas FS II in August 2023, highlighting a challenging trend for them in this matchup.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 28 | WDDWL |
| 6 |  Super Nova 2 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | WLDLD |
| 10 | Rīgas FS II | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 12 | LLWLD |
| 11 | Tukums II | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 12 | LDLWL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTukums II have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with JDFS Alberts 1-1 and beat Rīgas FS II 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 15L from the last 25 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Rīgas FS II have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rīgas FS II 12-1 and lost to Valmiera / BSS 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 13L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTukums II
No reported absences
Rīgas FS II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tukums II average 1.4 goals per match at home; Rīgas FS II 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tukums II have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 24% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. Tukums II player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
